The New England Patriots have pretty much owned the Houston Texans since the team came into existence back in 2002 (the Texans have beaten the Patriots once in 11 games). This week, even though they are not the same dominant team this year, the Patriots are expected to win again (favored by 3.5).
Tom Brady is going to be able to move the ball on the Texans defense. So, the key to the game is going to be whether Deshaun Watson can get Houston’s on track against New England’s dominant unit. If he can, we may have a game. If not, this one could get ugly quick.
So, in essence, this game is going to be between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. How much can Brady move the ball on Houston’s defense? Will Watson be able to move the ball against the Patriots defense?
Since the game is going to be decided by those two, why not focus your gambling on those two? At least a couple of sportsbooks are offering some interesting wagers involving Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson:
- Tom Brady & Deshaun Watson to Combine for Over 499.5 Total Passing Yards (Was -120) +120 (via pointsbet.com)
If you just look at what each team is averaging per game this season (273 for the Patriots; 263.5 for the Texans), it looks like they should be able to cover it. Houston’s defense averages 274.5 yards per game allowed this season, so it is hard to imagine Brady having too much trouble gaining yards on their end.
However, the hard part may be whether Watson can cover his end. The Patriots are allowing less than 200 yards a game. Yes, they may not be at full strength with so many guys battling the flu this week. But Bill Belichick will figure something out. But can Bill O’Brien counter may be the question.
Recommendation: Brady will take care of business with whoever the Patriots field. Don’t count on Watson, though. Pass on this one.
- Passing Yards: Deshaun Watson
- Deshaun Watson To Get 200+ Passing Yards -1250
- Deshaun Watson To Get 250+ Passing Yards -333
- Deshaun Watson To Get 300+ Passing Yards -111
- Deshaun Watson To Get 350+ Passing Yards +275
- Deshaun Watson To Get 400+ Passing Yards +700
His rookie year, Watson blew up on the Patriots defense for 300+ yards. Last season, he didn’t even get 200 (176). This season he is averaging around 263. His production has been all over the board. He has three sub-200-yard games but also has a 400+ one and two others that were 300+.
But against the Patriots, Bill O’Brien is going to try to control the ball, which means a lot of running and short-yardage passes. With the Patriots being fairly good tacklers, there will not be too many yards after the catch.
However, since he will likely be throwing the ball almost every down in the second half, he will eventually crack 200 yards. But don’t bank on him getting close to 300+. It will take a minor miracle for him to crack 250.
- Passing Yards: Tom Brady
- Tom Brady To Get 200+ Passing Yards -3333
- Tom Brady To Get 250+ Passing Yards -625
- Tom Brady To Get 300+ Passing Yards -227
- Tom Brady To Get 350+ Passing Yards +155
- Tom Brady To Get 400+ Passing Yards +400
Brady has been all over the board this season, starting with a 341-yard day in Week One to a 190-yard day last week against the Cowboys. He has four 300+ yard games (none over 350), three 250+ yard games, one 200+ yarder, and two sub-200-yard games.
There is no real correlation between his performance and the quality of the defense Brady is facing. But what we do know about him this week is he is short on talent just about everywhere, and the Houston defense had a heck of a game last week.
Due to injuries and guys being sick, don’t bank on Brady throwing for more than 250. It would not be shocking if he had less than 200 yards (just like against Dallas, the defense will win the day).