This season has seen Ryan Tannehill become one of the better stories in the league. After getting discarded by the lowly Miami Dolphins, his career appeared to be over. Sure, maybe he could hang around for a few years as a backup. But his days as a starter were done.

That isn’t how things played out, though.

Poor play by Marcus Mariota opened the door for Tannehill, and he proceeded to kick it down. If the Tennessee Titans don’t make him their QB of the future, someone else certainly will. But as good as Tannehill’s story is, it isn’t the only one for the Titans.

Of the many, the one standing out the most right now is the emergence of Derrick Henry. This season saw former Alabama running back taking over games down the stretch en route to his first rushing title.

Then he followed that up by rushing for nearly 200 yards against the Patriots and Ravens—and led the Titans to unexpected wins over both.

Now, as the AFC Championship game approaches, the world is wondering if he can do it again. Can he pave the way to another upset win for the Titans?

Or will Ryan Tannehill save the day this time?

If you feel strongly one way or another, then you may be interested in a wager that Bovada.lv is offering:

  • What will be greater?
    • Ryan Tannehill–passing yards -400
    • Derek Henry—rushing yards +250

Conventional logic would say that Ryan Tannehill is the obvious bet. Surely, a quarterback is going to throw for more yards than a running back is going to run for. But that has not been the case for the last two weeks. Henry approached 200 yards in each while Tannehill didn’t break 100 in either.

In fairness to Tannehill, it wasn’t because he was ineffective in either game. He attempted a total of 29 passes in those games and completed 15 of them. The plan was for Henry to grind out the clock and keep Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson on the sideline—and it worked.

However, it is worth noting that there were two regular-season games where Henry’s numbers surpassed Tannehill’s—against the Chiefs and the regular-season finale against the Texans. You could say in both that the strategy was the same—keep Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson off the field (and it worked).

So—how should you bet here?

Well, once again, they are facing a high-powered offense capable of scoring quickly and turning a close game into a blow out in no time. They will need to score points, of course, but it may almost be more important to keep Mahomes off the field.

Since they have gotten this far by running teams into the ground, why change? The Chiefs run defense will be the worst-ranked unit Henry has faced this postseason.