NFL Futures Odds: Daniel Jones vs. Baker Mayfield

NFL Futures Odds: Daniel Jones vs. Baker Mayfield

During training camp and into the preseason, whenever New York Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has come up in NFL conversations, the discussion was usually focused on when he would take over for Eli Manning. With how Manning has looked in recent years and how Jones has played, it has been a reasonable question to ask.

But thanks to Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, that has not been the case this week.

Mayfield was recently quoted in a GQ interview commenting on the Giants drafting Jones with the No. 6 pick in the 2019 Draft:

“I cannot believe the Giants took Daniel Jones; blows my mind. Some people overthink it. That’s where people go wrong. They forget you’ve gotta win.”

Mayfield has since tried to walk back those comments while Jones has just taken them in stride. While they may be clickbait, they have sparked enough discussion and debate for DraftKings to offer a special Jones vs. Mayfield wager:

  • Daniel Jones to have more passing TDs than Baker Mayfield     +2500

At those odds, there is a 3.85 percent chance that it will happen—but it should be a lot lower than that. Mayfield is one of the rising stars of the NFL. He leads a promising young offense with a great set of skill position players at his disposal (including Odell Beckham Jr.) and is going to start for the entire season on a potential Super Bowl team.

Jones is going to start the season on the bench behind a quarterback the franchise refuses to get rid of (but should have two years ago). His skill position guys are good but unremarkable except for his running back, Saquon Barkley. If he is lucky, he’ll get some garbage time early on, but will probably not start until the season is lost for the Giants.

There is no reason even to consider taking this bet unless you know of an undisclosed health issue, pending suspension, or scandal that could see Mayfield miss the entire season. Putting money on this wager is just like giving it away.

But there are a couple of other bets involving Mayfield and Jones that could be worth taking:

  • Who is going to have more regular-season starts, Daniel Jones or Eli Manning?

o Jones   +200

o Manning             -286

This will all depend on how good or bad the Giants are right out of the gate. If they go 0-6 (which is possible), it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Giants give Jones a soft first start against the Cardinals in Week Seven. But if they win a few, it will be more likely the wait until after the bye week against Chicago.

Take Manning.

  • Passing Yards— Baker Mayfield

o Over 4325.5       -110

o Under 4325.5    -110

Mayfield threw for 3725 yards in 14 appearances last season and just 13 starts for an average of 266 yards a game. But if you just count his starts, he averaged 271 yards a game which would equate to 4337 yards over a 16-game season.

There is, of course, the possibility of a sophomore slump that could kill his stats. But with Odell Beckham Jr. added to his arsenal, they could also explode.

Take the over.

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