Waiting for the NFL Draft can almost be as bad as waiting for the start of the new NFL season every fall. Every fan does look forward to the beginning of a new season. But it is what happens at the draft that tells fans how excited they should be.
Did their favorite team make the right picks? Are they going to be legitimate contenders for the Super Bowl? Will they begin the climb from obscurity to prominence? Or did the team drop the proverbial ball and screw it all up?
We will find out in a few short days. In the process, will find out the answer to some of the many questions that have been debated to death by the media over the last few months. One of the most common topics has been quarterbacks.
How many will go in the first round?
Many sportsbooks, like BetOnline.ag, are letting fans wager on the answer to that very question:
- QBs selected in Round 1
o Over 3 ½ -450
o Under 3 ½ +275
Will there be four taken or just three (or two or one)? According to those odds, there is an 81.82 percent chance that there will be at least four quarterbacks taken in the first round. The chance that there are fewer is 26.67 percent.
So—how many will be taken?
To answer that question, it helps to have a good idea of how many teams need a quarterback. While there are a few teams with older quarterbacks who need to start thinking about their next franchise QB (i.e., Chargers, Packers, Bengals, etc.), they are more likely to go for someone that will help them win now.
The teams in need are the Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins, and Denver Broncos. The New York Giants should be on that list as well, but the Giants also seem to think Eli Manning is made of Teflon. For some odd reason, the Cardinals and Raiders are in the mix as well. Neither needs a new quarterback. But both teams are expected to be in the market—at least for one specific quarterback.
Of those six teams, two are in definite need (Miami and Washington). The Giants should be, but for some reason, they are convinced Eli Manning is good to go. Denver may or may not feel the need to grab one now; it all depends on how confident they feel about Joe Flacco.
The Cardinals and Raiders are just a mystery. The rumor mill has had the Cardinals taking Murray for months even though they took a QB last year with the No. 10 pick (Josh Rosen). Oakland has Derek Carr, but Jon Gruden doesn’t seem to be a big fan of his.
But what about the quarterbacks?
There has been a ton of talk about Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins, and Daniel Jones (to a lesser degree, Ryan Finley and Will Grier). Several teams have been interested in each to varying degrees. But that doesn’t necessarily mean any of them are going to go in the first round.
Teams often go for need first but only if it matches up with who they perceive to be the best player available. Murray, Haskins, and Lock are the only ones deemed first-round talent (Jones is a fringe first round/second round talent).
So—what is the safe bet going to be?
It wouldn’t be shocking if the Cardinals held on to Rosen and the Raiders held on to Carr and took three guys that could help make Carr better instead. The Giants will likely choose someone with their second pick if not their first and the Dolphins will probably go QB.
As for the Redskins and Broncos, both have bridge QBs in place that could last a few years. It would be smarter to fill a different need than go after a quarterback.