Tuesday should be an interesting day as far as the Super Bowl betting odds go. We’ve finally reached game week. We have our first COVID concerns. Bettors are likely to start pushing around and manipulating the number a little bit to see what happens at the various sportsbooks when they get a little bit more activity than what they have seen so far.
Let’s take a look at where the line stands as of Tuesday morning and update it once again closer to the weekend.
Here is the NFL Sharp Money Odds Report update for Super Bowl LV as of Tuesday:
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a really tight Super Bowl number that hasn’t really moved in over a week. The line has pretty much held at -3 with extra juice on Kansas City. Some of the 3.5s that were out there last week were leaned on enough to come down to the key number. That has been one of the most intriguing developments of the lead-up to the game. Not because we’re grasping at straws for things to talk about in a betting context, but because it would certainly seem like the volume of both bets and money are on the Chiefs.
DraftKings Sportsbook has been sending out daily emails about the betting handle percentages and the percentage of tickets on each team. In Monday’s update, the Chiefs had taken 78% of the money and 72% of the bets at -3. That means that the Buccaneers have only taken 22% of the money and just 28% of the bets.
Tampa Bay, of course, has taken a higher percentage of bets on the money line, as a lot of Buccaneers backers are just going to look at the game and not bother with the three points. They’ll just bet smaller to win more by taking the money line, which has mostly sat at +143.
We’re starting to reach a point in the week where the weather forecast is getting a little bit clearer. It looks as though precipitation won’t be a factor, but that gusty winds could come into play. That will be a delicate balance for influential bettors. Based on that DraftKings Sportsbook email update, 76% of the money and 75% of the tickets were on the over.
It doesn’t make a ton of sense to play the under now, even if there are weather factors. Most recreational bettors on the Super Bowl won’t even factor the forecast into the equation. They’ll just bet the over because it’s the Super Bowl and it’s Tom Brady and it’s Patrick Mahomes and because of all of the wide receivers and the talent on the field.
Will the total get lower than 56? Is this the low point to buy on the over? I’m not entirely sure about that. With COVID and the potential for injuries in practice, I would assume that influential market movers are waiting along with the rest of us. They took some of their initial positions and they are attacking the prop markets. The spread and total may not even be on their respective radars.
It would be surprising to me to see 55.5 pop. A lot of US sportsbooks and some of the global shops that take a lot of public action are still sitting on 56.5.
This is an important lesson for all bettors into why it makes sense to have multiple sportsbook accounts to line shop. Public sportsbooks, those that take on a high volume of action on the expected side, meaning favorites and overs usually, will often be at the high point of the market. Sportsbooks that take sharper, smarter action will either have a truer number or be at the lower end of the market on underdogs and unders.
The Super Bowl is scrutinized in so many different ways, so it is a little bit harder to see this at work with a standalone game such as this, but you can definitely see it with other sports and markets.
Finally, while not the focal point of this Sharp Money Odds Report Market Watch update, make sure you shop around for the best prop odds. A lot of copycatting goes on when those lines get posted, but as sportsbooks develop risk and liability, they’ll be forced to move those numbers.
Don’t take Patrick Mahomes -115 to win MVP if you can find +100 or +105 somewhere else. Don’t take Tyreek Hill over 92.5 receiving yards if another place has 90.5. Will those two yards matter? Maybe. Maybe not. But why would you take a higher number when a lower one is available?
Set yourself up for success with the Super Bowl as much as you possibly can and that means shopping around for the best odds on the spread, total, money line, and all of the props.