The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers have a history against one another that includes plenty of matchups in the regular season and playoffs. But this will be the first Patriots vs Chargers matchup that features Mac Jones taking on Justin Herbert as the quarterbacks of these rosters. In this week’s NFL picks, our look at the Chargers and Patriots will shed some light on where to go when betting this contest.
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Patriots vs Chargers Betting Pick
This game will be played at SoFi Stadium at 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, October 31, 2021.
Why Bet The Patriots:
✅ A spread this big isn’t justified, as both teams are averaging an identical yards per play output this season. While public perception understandably rates Justin Herbert above Mac Jones at quarterback, the statistical performance of both teams hasn’t shown the same gap between both players.
✅ All but one of the Chargers’ games have gone under the total so far this season. In a low scoring game, it pays to get a 5.5-point underdog like the Patriots, even if the Pats have been less than convincing on the offensive side of the ball.
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✅ The Chargers are 4-2 on the season and have a better record than the Patriots, but New England has a much better point differential than the Chargers. Los Angeles has a -2 point difference despite their winning record, as they have not been all that convincing even though they’ve won more than they’ve lost.
New England Patriots
Through Mac Jones’ first seven games as the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots, the Patriots are 3-4 and looking like they will not be competing for a postseason berth. Last week, the Patriots demolished the New York Jets for the second time this season, with the Patriots yet to beat a team other than the Jets and Texans this season. But the Patriots have looked better than their record indicates to this point.
In their four losses, the Patriots have lost by more than six points just once, with that blowout loss coming against the New Orleans Saints. Other than that, the Patriots have lost close games to the Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, a close loss is all it will take for the Patriots to cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off of their bye week, after getting crushed by the Baltimore Ravens in their last outing. In that game, the Chargers simply could not put things together early on, setting up a situation where they had to chase the game from a very early stage. This week, the Chargers will look to start stronger and avoid being forced into going for it on fourth down out of necessity quite so often.
If the Chargers are going to have a better game on Sunday against the Patriots, consistent offensive production will be what gets them there. The Chargers went from scoring 47 points in a win against the Browns to being held to six points against the Ravens. Justin Herbert is still a young quarterback, but he cannot afford to have such pronounced peaks and valleys in his performance from week to week.