This AFC East matchup is a critical one for both the divisional and overall playoff races. The Patriots sit atop the AFC and the AFC North with an 8-4 record. That puts them in a four way tie with the other three division leaders. The Chiefs Titans and Ravens all carry the same record. With the Patriots yet to have their bye week, a win on Monday night would give them sole possession of the 1 seed in the AFC. The Bills are right there as well, just a half game back of the Pats at 7-4. A win for them would put them in a four way tie atop the AFC and sole possession of first in the AFC East.
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This game will be played at 815PM EST on Monday December 6th, 2021 at Highmark Stadium.
Patriots vs Bills Player Prop Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
✅ With the two best pass defenses in the NFL squaring off, it makes total sense that we would go in one of two directions for our player prop pick on Monday Night. We would look at either a passing game under or a rushing game over. The Mac Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns prop was very much in play, but I did not love the -210 price tag that came with that under. With that being the case, we pivoted to a rushing over.
Rhamondre Can Play
✅ The Patriots struck gold in the fourth round of this year’s NFL draft with Rhamondre Stevenson. The massive bruising back has been fantastic in limited opportunities all season. He is a great rusher that creates yards and also has soft hands in the passing game. Through eight weeks, Stevenson had double digit opportunities in just one game. The team was attempting to bring him along slowly, but he was forced into a larger role due to injuries in Week 9. He did not disappoint and has been rolling ever since. He had double digit opportunities in each of the last four games. Stevenson is averaging 69.8 rushing yards in those four games and his smallest output was 46 yards against the Titans last week.
✅ The Bills excel at holding down less competent backs and offenses. Sifting through rushing performances allowed, the Bills have been beaten by backs with higher end skill sets and did well against the opposite. The list of performances essentially is a ranking of ability of those running backs. The likes of Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor had huge games against the Bills. The likes of Tony Jones and Mark Ingram were far more bottled up. Of course we have a smaller sample size on Stevenson, but I fully believe him to be on the higher end of this list. His 5.4 yard per carry average since the role elevation is a true testament to his ability. He will not have to keep that same average or even close to, to get to the over on this rushing prop.