The New England Patriots have been known for getting off to slow starts in recent years, but not this season. No, this season, they came roaring out of the gate with a dominant effort on both sides of the ball—and they haven’t slowed down.
Before the two touchdowns the Jets scored in garbage time, no one had recorded a touchdown against the Patriots. Their defense still hasn’t; both of those came off turnovers. So, with how they are playing, when are we going to see them lose?
Who will do the honors?
If you think you know, DraftKings is offering odds:
- Week Four (@ Bills) +265
- Week Five (@ Redskins) +575
- Week Six (vs. Giants) +1400
- Week Seven (@ Jets) +550
- Week Eight (vs. Browns) +700
- Week Nine (@ Ravens) +425
- Week Eleven (@ Eagles) +675
- Week Twelve (vs. Cowboys) +1700
- Week Thirteen (@ Texans) +1700
- Week Fourteen (vs. Chiefs) +2200
- Week Fifteen (@ Bengals) +10000
- Week Sixteen (vs. Bills) +10000
- Week Seventeen (vs. Dolphins) +50000
- Undefeated +1100
It may be a little surprising to see the Bills in Week Four have the shortest odds rather than the Chiefs. But that is likely a function of when they play the Chiefs. It can’t be because oddsmakers think the New England Patriots are that much better than the Chiefs.
Oddsmakers must think that the Patriots are going to lose before then; sometime after Week Three and before Week 14. Of the games from Week Four to Week 13, the most likely candidates are the Bills (Week Four), the Ravens (Week 11), and the Cowboys (Week 12).
With how the Redskins, Giants, Jets, Browns, Eagles, and Texans are playing, it would be an incredible upset if one of them were to beat the Patriots. Do you really want to put money down on such a scenario?
As for the Bills, Ravens, and Cowboys…
Buffalo has a shot because of their defense and New England’s issues on the offensive line. Tom Brady has been susceptible to heavy pass rushes in the past. With all the injuries on the offensive line, the Patriots may struggle to give Brady sufficient protection.
However, if the Bills defense does succeed in pressuring Brady, it’s hard to see their offense scoring much.
Prior to last week, it looked like Lamar Jackson and the Ravens had a really good shot at overwhelming the Patriots. But if the Ravens can’t handle the Chiefs lackluster defense, they are going to struggle against the Patriots.
That leaves the Dallas Cowboys. So far, the Cowboys appear to have an offense that could score on the Pats and a defense that can pressure Brady. Does that mean they will win? Of course not. But of the teams the Patriots are playing, they have the best shot.
So—how should you bet? The best bet is probably to go with undefeated at +1100. But you might as well put a little on the Cowboys at +1700 and the Chiefs at +2200.