The sweats have finished and the standings have been locked for the Circa Sports Million II. The sophomore season for the NFL handicapping contest presented by Circa Sports was a smashing success. Even with a global pandemic, the Circa Million took over the top spot as the king of Las Vegas NFL contests. Knowing Derek Stevens based on everything he’s achieved throughout his career, it is not a title he will be giving up anytime soon with this contest.
The guaranteed prize pool of $3 million was thought to be too much as Week 1 drew near. Between a reluctance to travel to Las Vegas and the general uncertainty about the NFL’s ability to play, it seemed as though the lofty goals for the second season would not be met. In the end, the Circa Sports Million II drew 3,148 entries to fly over the guaranteed prize amount and bump the top quarter prize from $150,000 to $187,000 in the rake-free tournament.
Bigger and better things are assuredly on the horizon, as the Circa Resort & Casino opened in late October with plenty of fanfare and a sportsbook that puts nearly every other place to shame. As the pandemic slows down and another NFL season approaches, interested contestants will be flocking back to Vegas to sign up and I’d put the over/under at 4,499.5 for next year’s contest.
Before I recap Week 17, I’d like to once again thank our proxies, Matty and Toni, from FootballContest.com. They did an excellent job for us this season and we look forward to working with them again for the Circa Sports Million III and encourage you to do the same. Thanks also to the team at Circa Sports that did a great job presenting the contest and to Derek Stevens for having a vision and seeing it through to create this juggernaut.
While we ultimately fell short of our personal goals, it was an honor to be part of the contest again this year. On a personal level, my thanks to the owner of ATS.io for allowing me to partake in the Circa Million again this year and for the weekly discussion of the games and lines. It’s always a fun exercise and one of these years I plan to punctuate it by finishing in the money.
My ATS.IO-2 entry wound up 47-37-1. A 56% NFL season is nothing to scoff at, but a contest like this requires a very high rate of success and some incorrect decisions over the final few weeks proved to be a death knell for my entry. Winners on the Steelers, Bills, and 49ers outweighed losers on the Titans and Falcons to finish 3-2 and on something of a high note.
The ATS.IO-1 entry finished strong at 4-1 to finish 45-40 for the season. Winners on the Football Team, Steelers, Bills, and Chargers loomed large over a loss on the Bears to finish at 53% for the year.
The ink has dried on the 2020 season and the big winners have been decided. The biggest winner is DSR90-1, who won the grand prize of $1 million with a total of 57 points with a record of 56-27-2. That was a half-point better than Westgate SuperContest champion ODBMG-2 with 56.5 points and also DV8-1, who finished with the same score. Those two entries split the $300,000 for second place and the $100,000 for third place to take home $200,000 each.
Presence-2, who had three entries in the top 10 for most of the season, finished fourth with 55.5 points and took down $75,000 in prize money. DV8-2, Minura11-1, and ChickenDinner-1 all tied for fifth with 55 points and split $100,000 three ways for the fifth, sixth, and seventh place prizes.
Hornet-2 and NO Points for Second-1 tied for eighth with 54.5 points and split $34,000. There was a three-way tie for 10th between SunnySanDiego-1, Mr. Invisible-2, and Scoopski-1 with 54 points.
There was a 14-way tie for 48th place, which made up the top 50 plus ties. The cutoff for the money wound up being 51 points. In all, a total of $2 million was paid out for the top 50 plus ties.
A few additional prizes were decided in Week 17. The final quarter spanned five weeks from Week 13 through Week 17. Maiowe-1 wound up taking down the $187,000 grand prize with 20.5 points. There was a nine-way tie for second with 19.5 points. Those nine entries split the other $100,000 in prize money. The quarter prizes are a huge draw for this contest and will continue to be.
In a beautiful bit of irony, Jax 2 Win-1 won the Booby Prize of $100,000. I have no idea if Jax 2 Win is a reference to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will get Trevor Lawrence for their 1-15 season, but if it is, that level of symmetry is extremely fitting. Jax 2 Win-1 had 57 “points” to finish dead last while making all 85 selections. The stink of losing is made a lot easier by winning $100,000 for doing so.
Like I said, I’m thinking we have a realistic shot at 4,500 in this thing. The first season had 1,875 and the second season had 3,148. Maybe Stevens ups the ante with a guaranteed $5 million prize pool? He went up $2 million from Year 1 to Year 2. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. For now, everybody in this contest will shift gears to the personal bankroll and the NFL Playoffs.
Here are the Week 17 and final season results in the Circa Sports Million II:
Wins | Losses | Ties | Win Percentage | |
Week 1 | 7747 | 7107 | 796 | 52.15% |
Week 2 | 8781 | 6934 | 55.88% | |
Week 3 | 7476 | 8189 | 47.72% | |
Week 4 | 7690 | 7990 | 49.04% | |
Week 5 | 8862 | 6320 | 413 | 58.37% |
Week 6 | 7832 | 7733 | 50.32% | |
Week 7 | 8290 | 7190 | 53.55% | |
Week 8 | 7165 | 8305 | 46.32% | |
Week 9 | 6381 | 9109 | 41.19% | |
Week 10 | 7136 | 8319 | 46.17% | |
Week 11 | 6247 | 9043 | 40.86% | |
Week 12 | 7212 | 7867 | 246 | 47.83% |
Week 13 | 8504 | 6786 | 55.62% | |
Week 14 | 7637 | 7503 | 50.44% | |
Week 15 | 6549 | 6889 | 1531 | 48.73% |
Week 16 | 6720 | 6867 | 803 | 49.46% |
Week 17 | 7303 | 6347 | 53.50% | |
YTD Totals | 127532 | 128498 | 3789 | 49.81% |
It was a good note to end on with a 53.5% cover rate in Week 17. The field really struggled down the stretch, with only two winning weeks in the second half of the season prior to that Week 17 outburst. The top-five consensus went 3-2. The #1 pick on Washington with tons of stale line value was a winner to make the most popular pick 9-7-1 for the season.
The top-five consensus as a whole wound up 46-38-1 for the season. The consensus came in at 10-6 in Week 17 and finished up on the plus side of .500 at 124-120-7.
In the Circa Survivor, all 35 entries that went into Week 17 perfect finished Week 17 perfect. The Browns, Titans, and Vikings all provided a lot of scares for the entrants that took them, but in the end, the $2.39 million was split 35 ways for $68,285.71 to each contestant. Not a bad return on a $1,000 investment.
Here are the results, lines, and pick counts from Week 17:
1 Washington 941 (consensus #1)
2 Eagles* (+2) 411
3 Colts* 427
4 Jaguars (+13.5) 208
5 Packers 621 (consensus #5)
6 Bears* (+5) 518
7 Cowboys 753 (consensus #3)
8 Giants (+1.5) 427
9 Browns* 309
10 Steelers (+8.5) 455
11 Titans 367
12 Texans* (+7.5) 371
13 Saints 249
14 Panthers* (+7) 765 (consensus #2)
15 Patriots* 333
16 Jets (+2.5) 419
17 Vikings 228
18 Lions* (+7) 276
19 Buccaneers* 340
20 Falcons (+7) 370
21 Ravens 619
22 Bengals* (+12) 200
23 Bills* 748 (consensus #4)
24 Dolphins (+1) 377
25 Chargers 363
26 Chiefs* (+3.5) 213
27 Seahawks 474
28 49ers (+6) 294
29 Raiders 339
30 Broncos* (+2.5) 286
31 Cardinals 396
32 Rams* (+3) 553
Consensus record: 10-6
Top-five consensus record: 3-2
YTD consensus record: 124-120-7
Top-five consensus record: 46-38-1
Hope you enjoyed the coverage this season. We’ll pick this back up in September!