Las Vegas NFL Circa Million Weekly Recap: Week 2

Las Vegas NFL Circa Million Weekly Recap: Week 2

The two most popular picks for Week 2 in the Circa Sports Million II were losers. The next eight were not, so it wound up being a pretty good week, even though the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs lost with more than 30% of the field on each side.

It is hard to believe that two weeks are already in the books, which means that the first quarter is halfway over. The quarter prizes are where it’s at in the Circa Million, as the highest point total for Weeks 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, and 13-17 will win $187,000, which is more than the prize for finishing third for the full season. The top three places will get a piece of the quarterly prize and that will be decided just a couple of weeks from now.

For a long time, it looked as though we were going to wind up with an overlay on the guaranteed $3 million prize pool, but 3,148 entries came in to bump the prize pool up to $3,148,000 with the $1,000 entry fee and no rake. The no rake and the smaller entry fee seemed to be major factors as to why the Circa Million overshot the Westgate SuperContest by so many entries this season.

We are two of those 3,148 entries. Both of our entries went 3-2 this week. The ATS.IO-2 entry that belongs to ATS Radio host and lead writer Adam Burke is now 7-2-1 on the season. The ATS.IO-1 entry was 2-3 in Week 1 and 3-2 in Week 2 and sits at 5-5 with a split down the middle through 10 picks.

The entries got there in different ways. The only matching pick across the two was the Dolphins, who eked out a backdoor cover against the Bills. The -2 entry also had winners with the Cardinals and Raiders, while the -1 entry had dubs on the Falcons and Colts. The losses across the four entries were Philadelphia, Detroit, Tennessee, and New England.

Doug’s Team-3 is the only perfect entry left in the Circa at 10-0. Four entries are tied for second at 9-0-1. There are 21 entries at 9-1. There were 110 entries that went 5-0 last week. Over 60% of the field was 3-2 or better.

Here are the Week 2 and year-to-date results in the Circa Sports Million II:

  Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 7747 7107 796 52.15%
Week 2 8781 6934   55.88%
YTD Totals 16528 14041 796 54.07%

I ran the math four times to make sure it was correct, but the fact of the matter is that the sportsbooks got absolutely clobbered last weekend, so it makes sense. Fortunately for the Circa, their ability to make money off the contest isn’t based on how the picks do. It’s all about exposure with no rake and a 100% prize pool.

In any event, the field hit at 55.88%. Last season, the high mark was 58.27% in Week 3. The next highest week was 55.64%, so this was the second-best week in contest history. The top-five consensus did only go 3-2 and the two losses accounted for over 28% of the losses. The top five picks of the week are now 6-4.

The consensus, the most selected side in each game, went 9-7 and now sits at 17-14-1 through two weeks.

The Circa Survivor pick was on the Tennessee Titans and was a winner, but only four of the 805 entries were eliminated after last week’s epic day for bettors, so we won, but didn’t get much help from the other teams.

Here are the Week 2 results, pick counts, and consensus:

1 Browns* 123

2 Bengals (+6) 127


3 Rams 458

4 Eagles* (PK) 1,023 (consensus #1)


5 Bucs* 258

6 Panthers (+8.5) 464


7 Steelers* 545

8 Broncos (+7) 264


9 Cowboys* 357

10 Falcons (+4.5) 508


11 49ers 879 (consensus #4)

12 Jets* (+6.5) 183


13 Bills 661

14 Dolphins* (+5.5) 399


15 Colts* 597

16 Vikings (+3) 676


17 Packers* 785 (consensus #5)

18 Lions (+6) 407


19 Bears* 152

20 Giants (+5.5) 778


21 Titans* 188

22 Jaguars (+8.5) 567


23 Cardinals* 886 (consensus #3)

24 Washington (+6.5) 195


25 Ravens 756

26 Texans* (+7) 303


27 Chiefs 949 (consensus #2)

28 Chargers* (+8.5) 193


29 Seahawks* 762

30 Patriots (+4) 363


31 Saints 341

32 Raiders* (+5.5) 568


Consensus record: 9-7

Top-five consensus record: 3-2

YTD consensus record: 17-14-1

YTD top-five consensus record: 6-4

Be sure to keep an eye out every Tuesday for our Circa Million recap article and watch for the Circa Million weekly preview article every Saturday night. Also check out host Adam Burke and his weekly Circa thoughts on Friday editions of Radio.

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