Las Vegas NFL Circa Sports Million II Picks & Consensus: Week 4
Updated November 5, 2026
Updated November 5, 2026
Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season marks an important milestone in the Circa Sports Million II contest. The first quarterly prizes are about to be awarded, with $287,000 available to the top three entries after the opening four weeks.
For the leading contestants, there's plenty at stake. The first-place quarterly prize is worth $187,000, followed by $75,000 for second place and $25,000 for third.
Our two ATS.io entries aren't in contention for those prizes, but there's still a long season ahead. A strong Week 4 performance would help us make up ground in the overall standings.
This week's card presents several challenges, including heavy favorites, difficult road matchups, and games featuring teams that have been inconsistent through the opening three weeks.
Below, we'll review the contest standings, our five selections for each ATS.io entry, the most popular picks across the field, and our Week 4 Circa Survivor selection.
The Circa Sports Million II attracted 3,148 entries for the 2020 NFL season.
With each entry costing $1,000, the total prize pool reached $3,148,000, exceeding the original $3 million guarantee.
The contest requires participants to select five NFL games against the spread each week.
Unlike traditional sportsbook betting, the point spreads are released on Thursday morning and remain fixed for contest purposes.
That means contestants must evaluate the posted numbers even if the wider betting market moves significantly before kickoff.
The scoring system is straightforward:
Result | Points |
|---|---|
Winning selection | 1 |
Push | 0.5 |
Losing selection | 0 |
Each entry makes five selections per week, with the top 50 entries and ties receiving full-season prizes.
The contest also awards quarterly prizes, giving participants an opportunity to compete for significant payouts over shorter periods.
Those quarterly awards are particularly valuable because they provide opportunities for entries that may struggle early or fall behind in the overall standings.
The race for the first quarterly prizes is extremely competitive.
Two entries, Aaron White-1 and SUNNYSANDIEGO-1, share the lead with identical 13-1-1 records.
Both have accumulated 13.5 points through the first three weeks.
Seven entries are tied just behind them at 13-2, while Mustwin-1 occupies 10th place with a 12-2-1 record.
A strong Week 4 card could significantly change the standings.
Across the entire field, contestants have produced:
Statistic | Total |
|---|---|
Winning picks | 24,004 |
Losing picks | 22,230 |
Pushes | 796 |
Reported overall win rate | 51.92% |
Week 3 win rate | 47.72% |
The third week was particularly difficult, with the field winning fewer than half of its selections.
Our two ATS.io entries also struggled, each finishing 2-3.
The ATS.IO-2 entry, managed by ATS Radio host Adam Burke, holds the better overall record heading into Week 4.
ATS.io entry | Record | Winning percentage |
|---|---|---|
ATS.IO-1 | 7-8 | 46.7% |
ATS.IO-2 | 9-5-1 | 64.3% |
The ATS.IO-2 entry has accumulated 9.5 contest points, compared with seven for ATS.IO-1.
Both entries will be looking to improve their positions this week.
Each of our entries has submitted five selections against the spread.
The two cards share one pick, Miami Dolphins +6, but otherwise take different approaches to the Week 4 schedule.
Record entering Week 4: 7-8
Team | Point spread |
|---|---|
Detroit Lions | +4.5 |
Miami Dolphins | +6 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -6.5 |
Baltimore Ravens | -12.5 |
San Francisco 49ers | -6.5 |
The ATS.IO-1 card features three favorites and two underdogs.
Baltimore is the biggest favorite on the card, laying 12.5 points against Washington.
The Ravens are coming off a loss, but the contest field expects them to respond against an opponent that has struggled early in the season.
Tampa Bay is another substantial favorite.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have shown encouraging signs, while the Chargers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Carolina.
San Francisco also makes the card as a favorite, with the 49ers laying 6.5 points against Philadelphia.
On the underdog side, Detroit +4.5 and Miami +6 provide opportunities to benefit from the points in matchups where the favorites face questions of their own.
Record entering Week 4: 9-5-1
Team | Point spread |
|---|---|
Jacksonville Jaguars | +3 |
Dallas Cowboys | -5 |
Minnesota Vikings | +5 |
Miami Dolphins | +6 |
Buffalo Bills | -3 |
The ATS.IO-2 card includes three underdogs and two favorites.
Jacksonville and Minnesota are both road underdogs, while Miami receives six points at home.
Dallas is favored by five against Cleveland, and Buffalo is laying three points against Las Vegas.
The Bills have looked strong early in the season, and their matchup with the Raiders is attracting considerable attention across the contest.
One interesting feature of this card is that all five selections involve whole-number spreads.
That creates the possibility of pushes, which can be particularly important in a contest where every half-point in the standings matters.
The two ATS.io entries reflect different approaches to the same set of contest lines.
ATS.IO-1 leans toward favorites, including Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco.
ATS.IO-2 has a more balanced mix of favorites and underdogs.
Miami +6 is the only selection appearing on both cards.
That shared pick also ranks among the most popular selections across the entire contest field.
For additional NFL coverage, visit our NFL picks and analysis section.
The contest consensus represents the most popular side in each NFL matchup.
Through the first three weeks, the overall consensus has a 25-22-1 record.
The top-five consensus selections, representing the five most popular teams each week, are 8-7.
Entering Week 4, the five most popular picks are:
Rank | Team | Spread | Number of picks |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Baltimore Ravens | -12.5 | 1,316 |
2 | Detroit Lions | +4.5 | 1,107 |
3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -6.5 | 983 |
4 | Miami Dolphins | +6 | 857 |
5 | Buffalo Bills | -3 | 828 |
Baltimore is comfortably the most popular selection of the week.
Despite laying a large spread against Washington, the Ravens have attracted 1,316 contest picks.
Detroit ranks second with 1,107 selections, followed by Tampa Bay with 983.
Miami and Buffalo complete the top five.
Interestingly, four of the five most popular consensus picks appear on the ATS.IO-1 card.
Baltimore enters Week 4 looking to respond after a disappointing performance.
The Ravens are substantial favorites against Washington, and the contest field appears confident that they can win comfortably.
Laying 12.5 points is never straightforward in the NFL, but Baltimore's perceived advantage has made it the most popular selection on the board.
Detroit is another popular selection, receiving 4.5 points against New Orleans.
The Saints enter the matchup dealing with injury concerns, which may help explain the support for the Lions.
Detroit's position as an underdog also gives contestants some protection if the game remains close.
The Buccaneers are laying 6.5 points against the Chargers.
Tampa Bay's early performances have been encouraging, while Los Angeles enters the matchup following a loss to Carolina.
Miami, meanwhile, is receiving six points at home against Seattle.
The Dolphins are popular enough to rank fourth in the contest consensus and appear on both ATS.io entries.
Buffalo is favored by three points against Las Vegas.
The Bills have started the season well, and their perceived advantage over the Raiders has attracted significant support.
The contest line is particularly interesting because the wider market has moved to 3.5 at some sportsbooks.
Contestants who selected Buffalo -3 therefore hold a more favorable number than bettors entering the market at -3.5.
The following table shows the selections submitted for each team in the Week 4 contest.
Matchup | Team 1 picks | Team 2 picks |
|---|---|---|
Jets vs. Broncos | Jets 93 | Broncos +1.5: 71 |
Colts vs. Bears | Colts 705 | Bears +2: 637 |
Saints vs. Lions | Saints 366 | Lions +4.5: 1,107 |
Cardinals vs. Panthers | Cardinals 806 | Panthers +3: 300 |
Bengals vs. Jaguars | Bengals 296 | Jaguars +3: 730 |
Cowboys vs. Browns | Cowboys 620 | Browns +5: 463 |
Texans vs. Vikings | Texans 327 | Vikings +5: 640 |
Seahawks vs. Dolphins | Seahawks 529 | Dolphins +6: 857 |
Buccaneers vs. Chargers | Buccaneers 983 | Chargers +6.5: 274 |
Ravens vs. Washington | Ravens 1,316 | Washington +12.5: 106 |
Rams vs. Giants | Rams 601 | Giants +13: 114 |
Chiefs vs. Patriots | Chiefs 499 | Patriots +6.5: 186 |
Bills vs. Raiders | Bills 828 | Raiders +3: 403 |
49ers vs. Eagles | 49ers 660 | Eagles +6.5: 335 |
Packers vs. Falcons | Packers 243 | Falcons +7.5: 583 |
Historical Week 4 contest pick counts from October 3, 2020. All spreads and selections reflect the original contest card.
The Ravens have the largest advantage in pick counts over their opponent.
The Lions, Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Bills also attract significant support.
Several other games feature a more balanced distribution of selections.
Those differences can be important when evaluating contest strategy, particularly for entries attempting to gain ground in the standings.
Alongside the Circa Sports Million II, ATS.io is also participating in the winner-take-all Circa Survivor contest.
The original field included 1,390 entries, creating a $1.39 million prize pool.
Entering Week 4, 680 entries remain.
Unlike the Circa Sports Million, which requires five spread selections each week, Survivor contestants must select a team to win outright.
A loss eliminates the entry.
Our Week 4 selection is the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are favored against Philadelphia, making them an appealing option for a contest where simply winning the game is the objective.
However, Survivor contests also require careful planning.
Choosing a strong favorite now means that team may no longer be available for use later in the season.
Balancing immediate survival with future opportunities is one of the most challenging aspects of the format.
ATS.io Circa Survivor Week 4 Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The Circa Sports Million is different from ordinary NFL spread betting.
Contestants must select five games every week using point spreads that remain fixed after being released on Thursday.
That creates several strategic considerations.
Once the contest lines are released, they do not change.
If the wider betting market moves significantly, contestants may have access to numbers that are no longer available at sportsbooks.
For example, Buffalo -3 becomes more attractive if the market moves to -3.5.
That half-point difference can determine the outcome of a selection.
Certain margins of victory occur more frequently in NFL games than others.
Three and seven are particularly important because they correspond to common scoring combinations.
Moving across one of those numbers can have a meaningful impact on the probability of covering a spread.
Contestants must consider these differences when evaluating the fixed lines.
A push earns half a point in the Circa Sports Million.
That is better than a loss, but it can still cause an entry to fall behind competitors who earn full points.
Some contestants prefer half-point spreads to avoid the possibility of a push.
Others are comfortable accepting a whole-number line if they believe the selection offers sufficient value.
There is no single correct approach.
One of the biggest challenges is that contestants cannot simply skip a difficult week.
Every entry must select five games.
That can force participants to choose between several closely matched options, even when only a few games appear particularly attractive.
With a limited number of NFL matchups available each week, finding five strong selections can be difficult.
Week 4 presents an interesting combination of heavy favorites, key-number spreads, and popular consensus selections.
Baltimore is the overwhelming public choice, while Detroit, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Buffalo complete the top five.
Our two ATS.io entries take different approaches.
ATS.IO-1 backs several substantial favorites, while ATS.IO-2 includes more underdogs and relies on several whole-number spreads.
Both cards share Miami +6.
→ Our Take: This week's contest highlights the importance of line value and strategic selection. A strong favorite isn't automatically the best contest pick, particularly when the spread is large. Fixed lines, key numbers, and the need to submit five selections all influence the decisions. With the first quarterly prizes being awarded, Week 4 could significantly reshape the standings.
For more football coverage, see our best NFL bets this week and NFL matchup analysis.
Historical article: Originally published October 3, 2020. All picks, point spreads, contest standings, and consensus figures reflect the 2020 Circa Sports Million II Week 4 contest. These are not current NFL betting recommendations.
Updated November 5, 2026
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