Barring injury, two of the quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft are near-locks to start. Trevor Lawrence will take the first snap of the Urban Meyer tenure in Jacksonville and Zach Wilson will attempt to be the savior of the bumbling Jets franchise.
Whether or not Lawrence comes out and shines, the fact that the Jaguars have one playoff appearance since 2007 with names like Minshew, Bortles, Henne, Gabbert, Garrard, Glennon, Luton, Foles, Kessler, and McCown at the most important position on the field means that the Jaguars have reached a new era.
The Jaguars probably got more out of 2019 sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew than they got out of third overall pick Blake Bortles from the 2014 NFL Draft. With Lawrence on the board, they took their first QB prior to the sixth round since Bortles.
Lawrence was a National Champion and a three-year starter at Clemson that left before his senior season. His pedigree is much higher than that of any other Jaguars quarterback in that regard. What should our expectations be for him?
The over/under passing yards props at DraftKings Sportsbook is set at 4,150.5 yards. There will be a lot of interesting and compelling betting odds to discuss as the offseason moves along, but the outlook for a player like Lawrence will be among the most intriguing.
Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards – Over/Under 4,150.5
The Jaguars offense will look a lot different with Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Bevell has an extensive background in working with quarterbacks, but Meyer will probably lead a run-first offense. The Jaguars do have some really interesting weapons in the passing game, but the amount of attempts that Lawrence will get hangs in the balance.
On one hand, we can pencil Lawrence in for a lot because the Jaguars will be trailing in a lot of games. On the other hand, will Jacksonville throw on early downs? Will Lawrence just be facing nickel and dime on every third-and-long situation?
Only 10 quarterbacks surpassed this number last season. You may have heard of them – Watson, Mahomes, Brady, Ryan, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers, Cousins, Wilson, and Rivers. There are probably three or four Hall of Famers there and a bunch of other really good quarterbacks plus Kirk Cousins. Keep in mind that was over a 16-game season, though. We’ll have 17 games this year.
The Jaguars were bad enough to secure the first overall pick and still only ranked seventh in passing attempts last season. It is a new year and a new coaching staff, but the Jaguars were 32nd in rushing attempts. It would be a stunner if Meyer runs the ball that little this season, even while trailing.
Truth be told, as great as Lawrence is and projects to be, I’d be looking under this number. Not because he can’t do it, but because the play calling may not allow him to do so. Also, with any rookie quarterback on a bad team, you’re usually looking at offensive line issues. Just ask Joe Burrow. An injury is a very real possibility.