Baltimore Ravens quarterback is not a lock to win the MVP this season just yet, but the three closest competitors will need to have three incredible games down the stretch to even have a shot at the upset. Jackson was already well on his way to winning it when he surpassed Michael Vick for the single-season rushing record by a quarterback Thursday night.
But with 33 touchdown passes, he also leads the league in that category. Not bad for a running back, right?
The odds for Jackson and the only three guys with a remote shot of pulling off the upset are as follows (via DraftKings):
- Lamar Jackson -2500
- Russell Wilson +1000
- Patrick Mahomes +3300
- Deshaun Watson +4000
With all that Jackson has done on the field this year, it is hard to imagine him not winning the MVP this season. The only one of the other three that could conceivably win it is Russell Wilson. But he is going to have to be pure magic and a statistical nightmare over the final regular-season games.
After missing a couple of games, Mahomes isn’t going to win it. Watson will never win it as long as Bill O’Brien is in charge. O’Brien is too busy trying to control the narrative rather than just let his star quarterback do his thing.
But with as good a season as Jackson is having, as a passer and runner, it is almost a shame to think he is only going to win one award. The Ravens are favored to win the AFC (-110) and Super Bowl now (+215), so there could very well be two more MVP awards in his future.
It would almost be nice if he could cap off a magical season by doing something else that has ever been done—like win the rushing title. But the odds don’t really favor him having a shot (via DraftKings):
- Nick Chubb +100
- Derrick Henry +120
- Christian McCaffrey +400
- Chris Carson +5000
- Dalvin Cook +5000
- Ezekiel Elliot +5000
- Josh Jacobs +6600
- Leonard Fournette +10000
- Lamar Jackson +10000
After Thursday night, he is in fifth with 1103 yards, 178 yards behind the leader, Nick Chubb. But Chubb and the rest of the contenders have three more games to two for Jackson. That pretty much means Jackson is a lock not to win it.
However, Jackson has a single-game career-high of 152 yards. If he were to have two such games in the last two of the season and quite a few guys were to get stuffed during the last three weeks—he might have a shot.
But that isn’t going to happen. It would require too many guys to get shut down over the final three weeks. That, and he will probably not play in Week 17 against the Steelers.
Next year, however, he is likely going to be a popular bet to win the rushing title. His odds will be higher than most candidates because of his position, but with fewer teams focusing on one guy carrying the ball, it could happen.