The Sunday AFC Divisional Round will feature the #4 seed Houston Texans traveling to Kansas City to take on the #2 seed Chiefs.
Houston enters the Division Round by winning five of their last seven games, and one of those losses was with all backups in, so they are playing well at the right time. Last week the Texans won their first playoff game since the 2016 playoffs and will look to get to their first ever conference championship game. Houston is 0-3 all-time in the Divisional Round.
Kansas City ended the regular season on a six game winning streak that helped them earn the second seed in the AFC. The Chiefs will now look to get to the Conference Championship game for the second consecutive season. Kansas City is 3-8 all-time in the Divisional Round.
Whichever team wins will either host Tennessee or head to Baltimore for the AFC Conference Championship game next weekend.
Below is my best bet for the AFC Divisional Round game between the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. All lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5): O/U 48.5 points (-115/-105)
The Houston Texans dig themselves a 16-0 hole, last weekend against the Buffalo Bills, but fought all the way back came away with the 22-19 overtime win. Buffalo led 16-0 until late in the third quarter, but a Deshaun Watson 20 yard touchdown run, and subsequent two point conversion, turned the momentum onto Houston’ side. The Texans then scored 11 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a 19-16 lead, but couldn’t stop Buffalo on the final drive and needed overtime to finally put the Bills away. Houston went 5-3 on the road during the regular season with notable wins at Kansas City, Tennessee and Tampa Bay and road losses at New Orleans and at Baltimore. Houston is 8-8-1 against the spread and the under has hit in 10 of their 17 games this season.
Kansas City got some help in Week 17 and ended up with a first round bye, but none of that would have been possible if the Chiefs didn’t end the regular season winning six straight. The Chiefs hosted the Los Angeles Chargers in their regular season finale and walked away with a 31-21 win. Andy Reid and his team went 5-3 at home this season with notable wins over Baltimore and Minnesota, but notable losses to Houston and Green Bay. Kansas City is 10-5-1 against the spread and both the over and under has hit in eight of their games this season.
Series History: Houston won the matchup earlier this season, but Kansas City leads the all-time series 6-5.
NFL Pick: I like Kansas City -9.5 to get a two touchdown win.
YTD NFL Results: 74-59-3
Playoff Results: 1-2-1