Figuring out who is going to gain the most yards on the ground during the playoffs is easy—Derek Henry, without a doubt. However, the decision is surprisingly not as easy to call when it comes to passing yards. All four remaining quarterbacks are pretty decent passers. But none of them are leading the pack.
That honor currently goes to Houston Texans quarterback, Deshaun Watson.
With 388 yards against the Chiefs last week and 247 in their wild-card game against the Bills, he is the leader in the clubhouse with 635 yards. Coming in a close second is Russell Wilson with 602 yards, followed by Kirk Cousins (414yards) and Lamar Jackson (365).
The closest active quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, with 321 yards. Does that mean Watson might actually be a good bet still? According to FanDuel, the odds on who will have the most passing yards in the playoffs are as follows:
- Patrick Mahomes -170
- Jimmy Garoppolo +490
- Deshaun Watson +600
- Aaron Rodgers +650
- Ryan Tannehill +1000
Mahomes is the obvious choice. He would need 315 yards Sunday to overcome Watson. It’s a number he surpassed seven times during the regular season– including their regular-season game against the Titans (446 yards).
Tennessee’s secondary ranked 24th against the pass during the regular season, giving up an average of 255.0 yards a game. While they did give up 345 to the Ravens, they only allowed 209 to the Patriots. So, while Mahomes can hit that mark (315), it isn’t a lock.
Of course, Mahomes doesn’t have to do it this week, but there is a chance the Titans win this week. If they do and Mahomes is knocked out of the race, Watson will likely end up on top.
Aaron Rodgers can surpass Watson but will need to play in the Super Bowl most likely (or gain 393 yards against the 49ers). Although, he did throw for 400+ twice this season.
Tannehill only has 160 yards, and since the Titans are not going to give up on the run, there is no chance he beats it. Then again, he would need to average just 238 yards/game in the AFC title game and the Super Bowl—which he did in six of his ten starts.
That leaves Jimmy Garoppolo with his current total of just 131 yards. While it would be possible for him to do it with two games, like the Titans, they are unlikely to give up on the run. He would have to go for at least 253 in the NFC title game and the Super Bowl, a mark he hit just seven times during the regular season.
So—everyone could surpass Watson’s mark. But the only person that has a good shot at doing so is Mahomes. But go ahead and bet on Watson with +600 odds. Since you will not need to risk much for a decent payout, why not?