Two of the brand name franchises in the NFL will clash on Sunday, as the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots tangle in New England. The Cowboys will be a favorite in this matchup for a change, as they have been red hot, while the Patriots have struggled to find their footing. In this week’s NFL betting picks, we examine each side of Cowboys vs Patriots and provide our betting recommendation.
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Cowboys vs Patriots Betting Pick
This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 17, 2021.
Why Bet The Cowboys vs Patriots Under:
✅ Dallas has been scorching hot offensively so far this season, ranking third in the NFL at 6.5 yards per play. But it should be noted that they just played three straight home games and have been worse on the road offensively than they have been at home. Expect some regression from the Dallas offense here.
✅ The Patriots have been abysmal offensively, ranking in the bottom-10 in the NFL in yards per play. But their defense has been excellent, ranking in the top-10 in yards per play against. In a marquee game in the late afternoon window on Sunday, expect another defensive master class from Bill Belichick that will help the total go under.
✅ Patriots games have gone 4-1 to the under this season, while Cowboys games have gone 4-1 to the over. But the one under from the Cowboys this season came on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers, and another under should take place here.
The Dallas Cowboys took advantage of a banged up New York Giants team last Sunday, earning their fourth straight win in a 44-20 victory over their division rivals. Dallas capitalized on Giants starting quarterback Daniel Jones going down with a concussion during that game, as the Cowboys ran away with the contest in the second half. This week, the Cowboys will look to take advantage of New England’s own unenviable quarterback situation, as Dallas looks to stop rookie quarterback Mac Jones.
The question for the Cowboys this week is how they will perform on the road after playing three straight games at home. Dallas was competitive in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers to open the season and won outright as an underdog against the Chargers in Los Angeles. But a road game against a Bill Belichick coached team is never an easy task, and this game should be a grind even if Dallas does win.
New England Patriots
Last week, the New England Patriots played a closer game than expected against the Houston Texans, needing a late field goal to beat Houston by three. The Patriots allowed three touchdown passes to Davis Mills, who had looked horrible in his two starts prior to this game against the Patriots. This week, the Patriots will look to get back on track defensively in hopes of picking up a second straight win.
Encouraging for the Patriots last week was the performance of Mac Jones against the Texans. Saddled with a two-possession lead on multiple occasions in that game, Jones helped the Patriots come back and win. And while his yardage numbers and turnover output need to be improved upon, last week was a great learning experience for a rookie quarterback to play through.