Dallas Cowboys Still In Good Shape To Win NFC East—But Is That It?
The Dallas Cowboys certainly know how to disappoint their fans. The Thanksgiving Day game against the Buffalo Bills was supposed to be a ‘get-right’ game. They were supposed to correct whatever mistakes they made against the Patriots, improve to 7-5, and get a comfortable lead over the Eagles in the NFC East.
Instead, they have more fans and members of the media calling for the end to the Jason Garret Era and wondering if Dak Prescott is worth holding onto. Yet, somehow, the Cowboys are still in great shape to win their division.
The odds are not overwhelming, but they certainly do favor the Cowboys (via DraftKings):
- Dallas Cowboys -177
- Philadelphia Eagles +144
- Washington Redskins +50000
Those odds translate into a 63.9 percent chance the Cowboys win the NFC East and a 40.98 percent chance the Eagles do. Technically, the Redskins are still in the hunt. But their chances are incredibly slim (.2 percent).
At 6-6, the Cowboys have the worst record by far of the division leaders. In fact, they would be in third in every other division but the NFC South (second). But in the NFC East, .500 is good enough (for now).
The Eagles are certainly struggling at 5-7. They were supposed to pull back into a tie with the Cowboys on top of the division. But then they couldn’t handle the Miami Dolphins Sunday and lost. As for the Giants and Redskins—well, maybe next year.
Dallas could easily go 4-0 down the stretch with games against the Bears, Rams, Eagles, and Redskins; 3-1 is a definite possibility as well. It would be shocking if they ended up going 2-2 (but it is possible).
Philadelphia must run the table. With games against the Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants again, they may do just that. But if both teams end up 9-7, Dallas owns the tiebreaker. So, to win the division, they need to run the table and see the Cowboys lose twice.
That’s not going to happen.
So, you can take the Cowboys to win the NFC East and make the playoffs (-200 at DraftKings). But what about anything else? Is it worth it to take a flyer on them to win the NFC or maybe even the Super Bowl?
Their odds of winning the NFC are not terrible, but they don’t look good either:
- New Orleans Saints +185
- San Francisco 49ers +250
- Seattle Seahawks +400
- Green Bay Packers +650
- Minnesota Vikings +1000
- Dallas Cowboys +1200
It seems like they are going to see either the Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, or Vikings in the wild card round. They would have a shot against the Seahawks, Packers, and Vikings, but it will be a very close, competitive game. The 49ers will beat them.
Then in the divisional round, it could be either New Orleans, Seattle, or San Francisco. Dallas will be the underdog against all three.
So, it is unlikely that they even get to the NFC Championship game let alone win it. As for the Super Bowl (+2500), well—you can’t win the Super Bowl if you can’t win the conference.