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November 21st, 2022

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills NFL Week 11 Pick 11/20/22

Jay Sanin Jay Sanin

The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills both suffered tough losses in Week 10 of the NFL season. They both have a chance to get back into the win column this week, when they face off in Orchard Park on Sunday. In our NFL predictions for the Week 11 slate, we break down Browns vs Bills in a matchup featuring two potent AFC offenses.

Browns vs Bills Betting Pick

The Pick: Browns +9.5

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Bet Now

This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 20, 2022.

Why Bet The Browns:

✅ The Bills have shown some vulnerability against the run this season, at least compared to their play against the pass. They struggled to shut the run down against the Green Bay Packers at home as a huge favorite. Against arguably the best rushing attack in the league, the Bills’ struggles against the run will keep this game close.

✅ On the flip side, the weakness of the Bills is their running game on offense. Run defense also happens to be the weakness of the Browns defensively. Buffalo is not going to be able to take advantage of the porous Cleveland run defense, and will have to pass into a decent pass defense, which will also help keep things close.

✅ Buffalo has seen seven of their nine games go under the total so far this season. It stands to reason that in a relatively low-scoring game, we shouldn’t see a double-digit victory here.

NFL

Nov 20, 2022 01:00 PM

Cleveland Browns

VS

Buffalo Bills

Matchup Odds Injuries Trends

Spread Consensus

+7.5/-115
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$500 Risk Free
-7.5/-105

26% CLE

BUF 74%

MoneyLine Consensus

+291
Caesars
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17% CLE

BUF 83%

Total Consensus

50.0/-110
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50.0/-110

24% UN

OV 76%

Team Stats

Offense/Defense

CLE Team Stats BUF
17G16
361PTs286
21.2PPG17.9
5934YDS5106
349.1YDS/G319.1
38TD31
2.2TD/G1.9
34.6SC%31.0
11.2TO%14.3

Defense/Offense

CLE Team Stats BUF
17G16
381PTs455
22.4PPG28.4
5631YDS6361
331.2YDS/G397.6
42TD50
2.5TD/G3.1
38.5SC%45.0
10.2TO%15.2

Passing

Offense/Defense

CLE Passing BUF
335CMP362
540ATT570
62.0CMP%63.5
202.6YDS/GM214.6
6.9Y/A6.5
5.9NY/A5.6
12INT17
44SK40

Defense/Offense

CLE Passing BUF
315CMP361
519ATT574
60.7CMP%62.9
196.2YDS/GM258.1
6.8Y/A7.5
6.0NY/A6.8
11INT14
34SK33

Rushing

Offense/Defense

CLE Rushing BUF
17G16
532ATT387
2490YDS1673
146.5Y/G104.6
4.7Y/A4.3
19TD10
1.1TD/G0.6

Defense/Offense

CLE Rushing BUF
17G16
488ATT430
2295YDS2232
135.0Y/G139.5
4.7Y/A5.2
22TD15
1.3TD/G0.9

Special Teams

Offense/Defense

CLE Special Teams BUF
31Punts/Ret16
298Punt/Yds145
9.6Punt/Y/R9.1
41Kick Off/Ret48
943Kick Off/Yds970
23.0Kick Off/Y/rt20.2

Defense/Offense

CLE Special Teams BUF
26Punts/Ret29
319Punt/Yds276
12.3Punt/Y/R9.5
29Kick Off/Ret36
648Kick Off/Yds908
22.3Kick Off/Y/rt25.2

Scoring

Offense/Defense

CLE Scoring BUF
17G16
19RshTD10
19RecTD21
24FGM21
32FGA28
21.2Pts/G17.9

Defense/Offense

CLE Scoring BUF
17G16
22RshTD15
20RecTD35
30FGM27
35FGA31
22.4Pts/G28.4

Team Advanced Defense

CLE Defense BUF
22.9%Bltz%19.4%
7.4%Hrry%7.2%
5.2%QB Hit%9.8%
18.2%QB Prss%22.2%
  • Spread
  • MoneyLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CLE
BUF
CLE
BUF
Consensus
+6.5 -112
-6.5 -110
+8.0 -112
-8.0 -109
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+6.5 -110
-6.5 -110
+7.5 -110
-7.5 -110
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+6.0 -105
-6.0 -110
+7.5 -105
-7.5 -115
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+6.0 -112
-6.0 -113
+8.0 -112
-8.0 -109
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+6.5 -110
-6.5 -110
+8.0 -110
-8.0 -110
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+7.0 -110
-7.0 -107
+7.5 -110
-7.5 -105
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+8.5 -110
-8.5 -110
+7.5 -110
-7.5 -110
Open
Current
Book
CLE
BUF
CLE
BUF
Consensus
+226
-277
+291
-365
Draftkings
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+235
-280
+300
-365
FanDuel
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+215
-260
+290
-360
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+220
-278
+300
-360
Caesars
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+228
-285
+285
-365
PointsBet
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+230
-275
+300
-375
BetMGM
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+325
-450
+275
-350
Open
Current
Book
Over
Under
Over
Under
Consensus
44.0 -110
44.0 -110
50.0 -112
50.0 -109
Draftkings
Bet $5 Win $200
44.0 -110
44.0 -110
50.5 -110
50.5 -110
FanDuel
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46.5 -110
46.5 -110
49.5 -118
49.5 -104
BetRivers
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44.0 -112
44.0 -109
50.0 -112
50.0 -109
Caesars
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44.0 -110
44.0 -110
50.0 -110
50.0 -110
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44.0 -107
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50.5 -107
50.5 -107
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47.0 -110
47.0 -110
50.5 -110
50.5 -110

Injuries

Cleveland Browns Buffalo Bills
Name Position Injury Status Updated
Anthony Walker Jr.LBQuadOut11/20/22
Chris OdomLBKnee (acl)Out11/20/22
D'Anthony BellSConcussionOut11/20/22
Dawson DeatonGAclOut11/20/22
Demetric Felton Jr.RBGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Deshaun WatsonQBSuspensionOut11/20/22
Drew ForbesGGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Greg Newsome IICBOut11/20/22
Isaiah ThomasDEGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Isaiah WestonWRKneeOut11/20/22
Jacob PhillipsLBPectoralOut11/20/22
Jakeem Grant Sr.WRAchillesOut11/20/22
Jesse JamesTEBicepsOut11/20/22
Joe HaegOTConcussionOut11/20/22
Kellen MondQBGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Michael DunnGBackOut11/20/22
Nick HarrisCKneeOut11/20/22
Perrion WinfreyDTHeadOut11/20/22
Stephen WeatherlyDEKneeOut11/20/22
Amari CooperWRRest (non-injury Related)Questionable11/16/22
Chase WinovichDEHamstringQuestionable11/19/22
Jack ConklinOTFootQuestionable11/18/22
Jadeveon ClowneyDERest (non-injury Related)Questionable11/16/22
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTAnkleQuestionable11/16/22
Joel BitonioGRest (non-injury Related)Questionable11/16/22
Jordan ElliottDTNon Injury Related (personal)Questionable11/18/22
Myles GarrettDERest (non-injury Related)Questionable11/16/22
David NjokuTEAnkleProbable11/20/22
Ethan PocicCAnkleProbable11/18/22
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBKneeProbable11/17/22
Wyatt TellerGCalfProbable11/18/22
Name Position Injury Status Updated
A.J. KleinILBGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Greg RousseauDEAnkleOut11/20/22
Ike BoettgerGAchillesOut11/20/22
Jake KumerowWRAnkleOut11/20/22
Jamison CrowderWRAnkleOut11/20/22
Justin MurrayOTGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Kaiir ElamCBAnkleOut11/20/22
Micah HydeSNeckOut11/20/22
Tommy DoyleOTKnee (acl)Out11/20/22
Tommy SweeneyTEGameday InactiveOut11/20/22
Tre'Davious WhiteCBKneeOut11/20/22
Tremaine EdmundsLBGroinOut11/20/22
Cam LewisCBForearmQuestionable11/18/22
Isaiah McKenzieWRIllnessQuestionable11/18/22
Jordan PhillipsDTIllnessQuestionable11/18/22
Josh AllenQBElbowQuestionable11/18/22
Marquez StevensonWRFootQuestionable11/20/22
Rodger SaffoldGShoulderQuestionable11/17/22
Jordan PoyerSElbowProbable11/20/22
Matt MilanoLBIllnessProbable11/18/22
Reggie GilliamFBIllnessProbable11/20/22
Tim SettleDTIllnessProbable11/18/22

Betting Trends

Last 3 Last 5 Last 10
CLE Betting Trends BUF
OVERALLOVERALL
1-2-0Win/Loss/Tie1-2-0
2-1-0ATS W/L/P0-3-0
23Avg Score24.67
25Avg Opp Score23.33
AWAYHOME
0-3-0Win/Loss/Tie2-1-0
1-2-0ATS W/L/P1-2-0
19Avg Score31.67
28.33Avg Opp Score17.67
CLE Betting Trends BUF
OVERALLOVERALL
1-4-0Win/Loss/Tie3-2-0
2-3-0ATS W/L/P2-3-0
22.4Avg Score27.2
28.6Avg Opp Score18.6
AWAYHOME
1-4-0Win/Loss/Tie4-1-0
2-3-0ATS W/L/P3-2-0
19.4Avg Score36.6
27Avg Opp Score15.4
CLE Betting Trends BUF
OVERALLOVERALL
4-6-0Win/Loss/Tie6-4-0
4-6-0ATS W/L/P4-6-0
23.8Avg Score28.6
25.4Avg Opp Score19.3
AWAYHOME
2-8-0Win/Loss/Tie7-3-0
4-6-0ATS W/L/P5-4-1
21.9Avg Score29.5
28.3Avg Opp Score17.1

Head to Head

DATE TM LN ML 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT SC
11/10/19
BUF
CLE
42
-3
+136
-164
0
6
7
3
2
3
7
7
0
0
16
19
12/18/16
CLE
BUF
43
-10.5
+350
-500
3
10
0
7
10
7
0
9
0
0
13
33
11/30/14
CLE
BUF
42
-3
+150
-170
3
0
0
0
0
14
7
12
0
0
10
26
10/03/13
BUF
CLE
41
-3.5
N/A
N/A
10
0
0
17
14
7
0
13
0
0
24
37
09/23/12
BUF
CLE
45.5
3
N/A
N/A
14
0
0
7
3
7
7
0
0
0
24
14
12/12/10
CLE
BUF
39
-1
N/A
N/A
3
0
3
10
0
0
0
3
0
0
6
13
10/11/09
CLE
BUF
41
-6.5
N/A
N/A
0
0
3
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
6
3
11/17/08
CLE
BUF
40
-5.5
N/A
N/A
6
0
7
10
3
3
13
14
0
0
29
27
12/16/07
BUF
CLE
37.5
-5.5
N/A
N/A
0
3
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
12/12/04
CLE
BUF
37
-11
N/A
N/A
7
3
0
14
0
3
0
17
0
0
7
37

Teams Last 10

Cleveland Browns Buffalo Bills
DATE TM SC LN TOP RA-YDS C-ATT-YDS
01/08/23
CLE
PIT
12
24
33.8
-2.1
29:04
30:56
19-113
31-125
16-24-146
11-24-160
01/01/23
CLE
WAS
31
13
53.6
-1.3
26:28
33:32
39-189
48-176
12-23-200
21-36-160
12/24/22
NO
CLE
4
3
0.9
16.3
29:14
30:46
20-77
17-63
2-4-47
4-16-64
12/17/22
BAL
CLE
4
16
48.3
-3.7
26:52
33:08
34-242
40-175
21-37-154
22-34-171
12/11/22
CLE
CIN
2
10
0.8
20.7
31:52
28:08
11-31
11-60
11-19-120
4-15-100
12/04/22
CLE
HOU
39
20
66.3
10.7
32:16
27:44
54-248
31-117
17-31-185
29-56-287
11/27/22
TB
CLE
11
15
-2.3
27.0
30:37
39:04
13-62
22-122
19-28-147
15-24-114
11/20/22
CLE
BUF
31
42
10.9
68.0
31:22
28:38
35-109
45-232
38-56-429
24-37-253
11/13/22
CLE
MIA
6
22
28.5
-2.0
26:46
33:14
14-64
19-112
13-20-106
15-19-170
10/31/22
CIN
CLE
17
42
59.4
6.1
23:15
36:45
13-48
58-227
33-46-255
22-30-354
DATE TM SC LN TOP RA-YDS C-ATT-YDS
01/22/23
CIN
BUF
4
1
0.7
17.7
33:54
26:06
12-63
3-23
3-13-88
3-15-95
01/15/23
MIA
BUF
22
24
6.8
30.7
27:47
32:13
14-29
18-75
13-31-132
16-27-221
01/08/23
NE
BUF
19
30
5.7
37.1
32:37
27:23
19-90
21-76
22-34-197
16-26-200
12/24/22
BUF
CHI
18
3
20.6
2.2
28:48
31:12
16-129
15-41
4-13-87
5-14-66
12/17/22
MIA
BUF
35
39
10.5
53.9
30:07
29:53
31-230
35-184
21-37-266
31-49-362
12/11/22
NYJ
BUF
2
4
1.9
19.2
34:25
25:35
4-34
11-45
12-21-103
3-12-57
12/01/22
BUF
NE
34
14
62.7
8.1
38:08
21:52
53-188
20-86
31-47-318
31-51-260
11/24/22
BUF
DET
18
16
35.4
3.9
31:26
28:34
19-105
18-62
15-27-152
15-24-148
11/20/22
CLE
BUF
31
42
10.9
68.0
31:22
28:38
35-109
45-232
38-56-429
24-37-253
11/13/22
MIN
BUF
19
17
2.1
26.7
35:02
33:46
14-85
16-101
17-29-192
17-25-179
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Cleveland Browns

In Week 10, the defense of the Cleveland Browns let them down. They gave up 39 points in a blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins, allowing Tua Tagovailoa to throw three touchdown passes along the way. This week, the Browns defense has to be better to slow down a Buffalo Bills team that is more than capable of scoring big in their own right.

In addition to their defense, the running game of the Browns is going to have to operate at a high level. They managed 112 yards on the ground against the Dolphins, but had to get away from the run to try and make up their deficit through the air. Nick Chubb and the running game have to get out to a fast start to prevent another huge deficit.

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills lost what may have been the best game of the year in the NFL last week. They fell in overtime to the Minnesota Vikings, after they fumbled the ball in their own end zone during a late-game kneel down attempt that would have sealed the game. Here, Buffalo needs to pay better attention to detail to avoid another heart wrenching loss.

In a similar vein, the Bills need Josh Allen to stop turning the ball over so much. Allen is the best quarterback in the league when he avoids turnovers, but his multiple mistakes against the Vikings cost Buffalo in a huge way. After dropping from first place to third place in the division over the weekend, Buffalo has to get back to doing things the right way.

[optin-monster-inline slug=”zv14tnlnqbvigyfuxt8k”]

Tags: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns
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