It is not unheard of for a player to burst onto the scene and play so well that he is in the running for some individual hardware at the end of the season. But does anyone really think that guy is going to be Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock? Could Drew Lock win the MVP this season?
Fans probably cannot help but imagine what he is capable of in a full 16-game season after the taste he gave them last year. Had he played in all 16 games last season it is not hard seeing him win offensive rookie of the year honors
So, with a full season this year, why not MVP?
At one sportsbook, so many people are ready to get behind Lock for MVP that he is tied with Kyler Murray for the most popular MVP bet. Each has accounted for nine percent of the tickets at WilliamHill.com.
The current odds at William Hill for Lock and the frontrunners are as follows:
2020 NFL Regular Season – MVP Odds
- Patrick Mahomes +350
- Lamar Jackson +600
- Russell Wilson +800
- Deshaun Watson +1400
- Dak Prescott +1500
- Tom Brady +1600
- Drew Brees +1800
- Kyler Murray +2000
- Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers +2500
- Saquon Barkley, Cam Newton +3000
- Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo +3300
- Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Alen +4000
- …Drew Lock +6000
In a tweet William Hill shared with the world on August 20, Lock’s odds were listed at +10000. While the payout is not as good now, winning a bet with +6000 odds will undoubtedly make your day. But is there any reason to believe he can win?
As strange as it might sound— yes.
When you look at the early odds for the last 11 MVP winners, five had odds of +3525 or longer. Four of those five came in the last four years, with Matt Ryan having the highest odds in 2016 (+7500). So, do not let the long odds scare you off.
But can he win it? Can he perform at an MVP level?
Winning is important for NFL MVP voters, and Lock was good at that last season going 4-1 in his five starts (with the one loss against the Chiefs). But to even get into the conversation, he will need to generate more stats than he did in those five games.
Out of the five, he had one 300+ yards, three-touchdown day. But he also had three where he threw for less than 200. An MVP candidate needs to be the reason his team wins, which stats can be a good indicator of. With some of the weapons he will have at his disposal, it is not hard seeing him do just that.
Courtland Sutton is turning into a promising young wide receiver, and the team added Alabama standout Jerry Jeudy in the draft. Melvin Gordon should give the Broncos a little more versatility coming out of the backfield.
So—how should you get?
The smart, safe money is not on Lock but Mahomes, Jackson, or Russell Wilson. But if Lock can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump and make the most of all his weapons, there are a few possible scenarios that end with being named MVP.
More than likely, you are wasting your money betting on Lock. But at those odds, there is value there. He could do it. With +6000 odds, the risk is worth the reward.