2020 NFL Betting Props: Tom Brady & The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 NFL Betting Props: Tom Brady & The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We have heard for years about an apparent disconnect between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. No matter how often someone’s ‘source’ claimed the issues were real and Brady was contemplating leaving the Patriots, the idea didn’t seem real.

But legends leave their teams all the time, and apparently, Brady is done with the Patriots. If what we are hearing is right, he will soon be joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


Yes, TB is going to TB—if the rumors are real.

From what NFL insiders tell us, the two sides are still working out the language in his contract.  That means it could not happen, which is probably why they are quick to say that it is.

So, assuming he does go to Tampa Bay, betting on him could be interesting. Not necessarily the Buccaneers to do anything special, but Brady. Tampa’s defense is not impressive, so Brady will likely be playing from behind a lot. His running back is terrible, so he will have to throw a lot.

But with guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to work with, he should throw a lot. However, if the Bucs don’t improve their 19th ranked offensive line (according to PFF), their 40+-year-old QB may not survive the first game.

If he does survive and if he does thrive under the guidance of Bruce Arians, he could post some incredible numbers this season. FanDuel is offering a series of props for those who think they know how Brady will do with the Bucs:

  • Regular season passing yards— Over/Under 4399.5

Brady threw for 4000+ yards last season with an aging Julian Edleman as his primary receiver followed by running back James White. With the talented receivers, he will have in Tampa, surpassing that should not be a problem. But can he cover the over?

He only did so twice in the last five years in New England. But, then again, the talent he has had to work with has been lacking. Look for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to have career years and take the over.

  • Regular season passing touchdowns—Over/Under 29.5

Yes, he did not cover the over in three of his last five seasons in New England. But he did come really close in two (2016—28; 2019—29) despite the lack of talent helping him out. Take the over here as well.

  • Regular season interceptions—Over/Under 10.5

Brady is not Jameis Winston. He is not going to throw a ton of interceptions. Last season, he only had eight, and he has covered the over only once in six years. Take the under.

More wins: Tampa Bay vs. New England

    • Buccaneers +118
    • Patriots -138

It would be nice to think the Buccaneers can rise above as the Patriots fall merely because they have Tom Brady and New England doesn’t. But it might be foolish to count on it. Brady was important to the Patriots, but not critical to their success.

Adding him will do wonders for the Buccaneers, but don’t bank on them winning more than the Patriots this season. Bill Belichick will figure out a way to win.

Receiver for Brady’s First Touchdown Pass

    • Chris Godwin +200
    • Mike Evans +220
    • Cameron Brate +700
    • Ronald Jones +700
    • OJ Howard +850
    • Dare Ogunbowale +950
    • Justin Watson  +1200
    • Scotty Miller +1500
    • Breshad Perriman +2000

This is a roll of the dice. The only tells we have to work with here is that Brady does tend to gravitate towards talent. So, the smart money is probably on Mike Evans, followed by Chris Godwin, then OJ Howard and Cameron Brate. If you want to roll the dice, put a couple of bucks on Perriman.

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