NFL fans love their winners, and everyone loves to think they know how to pick them. The hard part isn’t picking who will do well and possibly win the Super Bowl. It’s harder to pick out who is not going to do well. Yes, we know who the bad teams will probably be.
But do we know which teams will perform so poorly their head coach is going to get fired? If the answer is ‘yes’ then you may have some interest in a prop Unibet.com is offering:
Next Head Coach to Leave 2020/2021
- Matt Patricia +350
- Doug Marrone +450
- Adam Gase +550
- Dan Quinn +1000
- Bill O’Brien +1100
- Anthony Lynn, Matt Nagy +2500
- Zak Taylor +3000
- Bruce Arians, Vic Fangio, Brian Flores, Mike Zimmer +3300
- Joe Judge, Kliff Kingsbury +4000
- Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Jon Gruden, John Harbaugh, Matt Lafleur, Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, Andy Reid, Ron Rivera, Kevin Stefanski, Mike Tomlin +5000
- Sean McDermott, Sean McVay, Matt Rhule, Mike Vrabel +6600
- Kyle Shanahan +10000
When we look at this prop, we immediately start to think about who is most likely to get fired first. That is the most common way a head coach leaves a team, of course, so that makes sense. But with how the heading reads, the winner does not have to get fired; he just needs to leave the team.
That could mean he resigns, dies, retires, steps away for health reasons, gets traded, etc. What matters is that he is no longer acting as the head coach of the team.
Most of these guys can, of course, be eliminated quickly. First-year coaches and the perennial winners are safe. About the only thing that might get them fired is if they get involved in a racially motivated controversy or break the law (felonies; most could survive misdemeanor offenses).
Second-year head coaches, if their team was terrible last year and doesn’t improve this year, could be in trouble. But most franchises tend to give head coaches three years.
With that in mind, every coach with odds of +4000 or longer is more than likely safe. Bruce Arians, Vic Fangio, Brian Flores, and Mike Zimmer are likely safe since they are on teams expected to be better this year than last. If their team should flop, of course, they will be on the chopping block.
But for now, they are likely safe.
That leaves Matt Patricia, Doug Marrone, Adam Gase, Dan Quinn, Bill O’Brien, Anthony Lynn, Zac Taylor, and Matt Nagy.
So—who should you bet on?
Matt Patricia is by far the safest bet here. Under him, the Lions have gone from bad (six wins) in his first year to worse (three wins) in his second. If the Lions start the season with a lengthy losing streak, he may not finish the year.
Otherwise, Doug Marrone is the most likely candidate. Gardner Minshew’s surprising emergence saved him last season. But if Minshew flops this season and the Jags struggle, Marrone will go.
If you want to roll the dice on a long shot NFL Pick, consider Zak Taylor or Matt Nagy.
Should the Bengals fumble their way to another terrible finish, they may go ahead and cut the cord on Zac Taylor. With a talent like Joe Burrow, they are not going to waste a second year under a lousy coach.
Winning Coach of the Year honors in ’18 could save Nagy. But if the Bears struggle and he doesn’t bench Mitchell Trubisky, he’s done.