Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction & Picks – 10/13/2024

Buccaneers vs Saints Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers faceoff against Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers enter the game as a favorite (-180) despite being on the road. Tampa Bay is currently favored by -3.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.

New Orleans's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 247 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 151 yards per game. Partially to blame is New Orleans's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #30 in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for New Orleans given that the Buccaneers pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 7.31 yards per target (good for #13-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Saints check in at #3 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 188 yards per game against New Orleans this year (#27 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 against them with 4.56 yards per ground attempt. This Saints defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 75.6% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their defensive tackles, who rank just #30 in the league when it comes to run-stopping.

Tampa Bay's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 396 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #5-most yards per game: 272. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their run defense, though, which checks in at #5-worst in yards per carry (5.17). The Buccaneers pass defense has been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, allowing them to rack up 57 yards per game (#3-worst). Tampa Bay's worst position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank just #25 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Buccaneers have ranked #13 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 248 yards per game (#9 in football). On the ground they've ranked #12 with 4.5 yards per carry.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.17 vs New Orleans Saints 23.53

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

Get daily NFL picks here.