Zach Ertz projections, stats and prop bet odds for Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sep 8, 2024
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 3.5 over: 125
- Receptions 3.5 under: -160
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
A throwing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog this week.
Right now, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense last year: 4th-most in the league.
In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.4 targets.
Zach Ertz is positioned as one of the top tight ends in the pass game last year, averaging a terrific 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Washington's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with windier conditions in this week's game.
While Zach Ertz has been responsible for 19.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Washington's pass game in this contest at 14.0%.
Zach Ertz has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a mere 63.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.6%) versus TEs last year (68.6%).
Projection For Today's Zach Ertz Receptions Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 2.8 Receptions in todays game.
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 26.5 over: -125
- Receiving Yards 26.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
A throwing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -3.5-point underdog this week.
Right now, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense last year: 4th-most in the league.
In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.4 targets.
When talking about air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a remarkable 42.0 per game.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Washington's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats deflated) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with windier conditions in this week's game.
While Zach Ertz has been responsible for 19.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Washington's pass game in this contest at 14.0%.
Zach Ertz has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a mere 63.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 6th percentile.
Zach Ertz comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging just 4.51 adjusted yards-per-target last year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
Projection For Today's Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 24.2 Receiving Yards in todays game.
