Jay Sanin on February 6, 2025
Saquon Barkley projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles on Feb 9, 2025
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 3.0 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 72.6% to 85.7%.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.
Saquon Barkley's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 26.4.
The Philadelphia offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 2.1 Receptions in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.4% run rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 21.1 rush attempts.
Out of all RBs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 64.6% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's safety corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 18.8 Carries in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 3.0 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has compiled a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 72.6% to 85.7%.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.
Saquon Barkley's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 26.4.
The Philadelphia offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 15.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.4% run rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 21.1 rush attempts.
Out of all RBs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 64.6% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.
Saquon Barkley has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (122.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
The predictive model expects the Eagles to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the deficient Kansas City Chiefs run defense has allowed a colossal 4.24 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 2nd-largest rate in football.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's safety corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.
Saquon Barkley is projected to have 93.6 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
