The NFL Most Valuable Player award is somewhat of a misleading title for this award in its current state. After all, the NFL MVP award is almost exclusively an award for quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have won this award 11 straight times and 16 times in the last 17 seasons. The only season in which a quarterback did not win MVP in that span was Adrian Peterson’s 2012 2,000-yard rushing season.
It has been firmly established that non-quarterbacks need historically great campaigns to even be considered for the MVP award in the NFL. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton won the award before quickly melting into anonymity upon regressing to their respective means. But that is simply the lay of the land with this award, and bettors need to adjust accordingly, even if they know that many skill positions and defensive players deserve consideration they will never get.
This season, quarterbacks again dominate the list of favorites to win the NFL MVP award. The only question is which one is going to claim it. Here, we look at the odds to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award in 2024.
2024 NFL MVP Odds
| Player | NFL MVP Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes | +240 |
| Josh Allen | +300 |
| CJ Stroud | +1000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1000 |
| Sam Darnold | +1000 |
| Brock Purdy | +1600 |
| Joe Burrow | +2000 |
With this market, the goal above all else is to find a quarterback who has the potential to have a huge year at a good price. Bettors need to keep in mind that it takes production and winning games to win this award, which is usually just given to the quarterback with the best numbers on one of the top three or four teams. Who will that be this season? Let’s take a closer look at the favorites to narrow down the list.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is at the top of the list of favorites to win the 2024 NFL MVP award. Mahomes just won Super Bowl MVP in leading his team to a championship in just the second overtime game in Super Bowl history. He is the most gifted pure passer in the league, which will always give him a chance to claim this award, and a great start for the Chiefs early in 2024 has put him right at the top of the charts in the MVP race.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is a very talented quarterback who has been a fixture on the list of NFL MVP favorites going into recent seasons. He no longer has Stefon Diggs to throw to, but that has not been a problem for Allen or the Bills this season as they have one of the best records in the league early in the year. Allen is in contention to win this year’s MVP award based on how well he has played this season, though he will need to avoid turning the ball over to stay in that position.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans brought in Stefon Diggs to help CJ Stroud develop as a young quarterback this season. So far, that decision has paid off in a big way, as Stroud is in the MVP race for a Texans team that has been very good early on. Stroud will need to keep putting up big numbers to stay in this race alongside Mahomes and Allen, but he’s proven himself more than capable of doing that so far, even after a bump in the road away from home against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
Other Players With a Chance
When picking an NFL MVP candidate at longer odds than the aforementioned favorites, bettors can simply pick a quarterback they think has a better chance than their current odds. Players like Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson could all be decent selections at longer odds, as team performance will dictate who wins MVP just as much as individual statistics will.
2024 NFL MVP Futures Prediction
Our pick to win this year’s MVP award in the NFL is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. While Mahomes is always a threat to grab this award for himself, the play of Allen should keep him in this race by virtue of the Bills stacking up plenty of early-season victories. Look for Allen to be among the last men standing in the NFL MVP race and for him to prove that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the recent history of the NFL.
NFL MVP Historical Stats & FAQ
The National Football League Most Valuable Player Award (NFL MVP) is presented by various organizations to the American football player deemed the most valuable during the NFL regular season. Before placing bets on the award, it’s important to know some historical details and frequently asked questions.
How is the NFL MVP Decided?
The NFL MVP is decided through a voting process conducted by a panel of 50 sportswriters and broadcasters. As of the 2022 season, the voting format changed to ranked-choice voting. Voters now submit a list of their top five players, ranking them in order of preference. The player with the most points from these rankings is awarded the NFL MVP. Patrick Mahomes was the first player to win the MVP under this new format.
Who has the most MVPs in NFL history?
Peyton Manning holds the record for the most NFL MVP awards, having won the title five times. Aaron Rodgers follows closely with four MVP wins. Manning’s achievement solidifies his place as one of the greatest players in NFL history.
Has a defensive player ever won the NFL MVP?
Yes, two defensive players have won the NFL MVP award. Alan Page, a defensive tackle, won the award in 1971, and Lawrence Taylor, a linebacker, earned the MVP title in 1986. These rare achievements highlight the impact defensive players can have in the NFL.
Has an NFL MVP ever missed the playoffs?
Yes, two NFL MVP winners have missed the playoffs. Johnny Unitas won the MVP award in 1967 and O.J. Simpson in 1973 despite their teams not making the postseason. However, both teams had strong seasons, with a combined win percentage of 76.9%, equivalent to a 13-win pace in a 17-game season.
Who was the biggest Long Shot to Win NFL MVP
One of the biggest long shots to win the NFL MVP was Matt Ryan, who entered the 2016 season as a 75/1 underdog and went on to claim the award. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Lamar Jackson (2019) were considered long shots with 100/1 odds a few months before their MVP-winning seasons, although their odds shortened to around 40/1 by Week 1.
Which stats affect NFL MVP Voting?
NFL MVP voting is heavily influenced by team success, but specific player statistics also play a crucial role. Touchdowns and efficiency are key factors, with metrics like completion percentage and QBR being very telling when determining who is going to win MVP. While passing yardage is significant, it has been less of a determining factor compared to these other metrics.
