The NFL Most Valuable Player award is something of a misleading title for this award in its current state. After all, the NFL MVP award is almost exclusively an award for quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have won this award 10 straight times and 15 times in the last 16 seasons. The only season in which a quarterback did not win MVP in that span was a 2,000-yard rushing season from Adrian Peterson in 2012.
It has been firmly established that non-quarterbacks need to have historically great campaigns to even be considered for the MVP award in the NFL. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have won the award before quickly melting back into anonymity upon regressing to their respective means. But that is simply the lay of the land with this award, and bettors need to adjust to it accordingly, even if they know Aaron Donald deserves consideration that he will never get.
This season, quarterbacks once again dominate the list of favorites to win the NFL MVP award. The only question is which one is going to claim it. Here, we take a look at the odds to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award in 2023.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Player | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mahomes
|
+650 | +600 | +650 | +600 | +650 |
Allen
|
+800 | +800 | +800 | +700 | +750 |
Burrow
|
+900 | +900 | +900 | +900 | +1000 |
Jackson
|
+1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
Stroud
|
+1200 | +1100 | +1200 | ||
Herbert
|
+1200 | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 | +1400 |
Stroud
|
+1400 | +1400 | +1200 | ||
Prescott
|
+1500 | +1400 | +1500 | +1500 | +1600 |
Love
|
+1500 | +1600 | +1500 | +1200 | +1400 |
Purdy
|
+1600 | +1600 | +1600 | +1200 | +1800 |
Hurts
|
+1800 | +1600 | +1800 | +1500 | +1800 |
Stafford
|
+2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +3000 | +2000 |
Rodgers
|
+2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +2000 | +2500 |
Tagovailoa
|
+2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +1800 | +2500 |
Lawrence
|
+3000 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 | +2000 |
McCaffrey
|
+3500 | +10000 | +3500 | +3500 | +5000 |
Goff
|
+3500 | +4000 | +3500 | +4000 | +3500 |
Richardson
|
+4000 | +3500 | +4000 | +3500 | +3000 |
Cousins
|
+4000 | +3500 | +4000 | +3500 | +4000 |
Watson
|
+5000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 | +7500 |
With this market, the goal above all else is to find a quarterback who has the potential to have a huge year at a good price. Bettors need to keep in mind that it takes production and winning games to win this award, which is usually just given to the quarterback with the best numbers on one of the top three or four teams. Who will that be this season? Let’s take a closer look at the favorites to narrow down the list.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The favorite to win the NFL MVP is Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson helped the Ravens to earn the top seed in the AFC this season, with Jackson staying healthy and effective throughout the year. It is highly unlikely that any other player will win this award at this point in time, but you never know if voters will elevate another candidate instead.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
While he is unlikely to win the MVP award this year, Dak Prescott certainly deserves recognition for the season he had in 2023. Prescott led the Cowboys to the NFC East title, beating out Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles to get that done. This feat pales in comparison to Jackson beating out three AFC East teams that finished above .500 along with the Ravens, but Prescott would have won MVP in many other seasons had Jackson not done what he did.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy was not expected to be in the MVP race at the start of this NFL season. But Purdy has been great for the San Francisco 49ers this season, taking full advantage of the skill position weapons at his disposal this year. With the 49ers sitting at the top of the NFC standings and the Niners remaining the favorites to win the Super Bowl, it is only logical that Purdy is on the short list of Super Bowl favorites.
Other Players With a Chance
When it comes to other options in the MVP race, bettors can argue that someone like Christian McCaffrey deserves a look for the award. But it is hard to justify taking McCaffrey or any of the other quarterbacks in the league above the top-three options listed above now that the regular season is in the books.
2023 NFL MVP Futures Prediction
It would be a shock if Lamar Jackson did not win the MVP award to cap off the 2023 NFL season. Jackson was clearly the best player at his position in the regular season, for a team that finished atop the most competitive conference. There will be questions about whether or not Jackson can deliver in the playoffs, but with this being a regular season award, he is more than deserving of a second MVP in his career.