The NFL Most Valuable Player award is something of a misleading title for this award in its current state. After all, the NFL MVP award is almost exclusively an award for quarterbacks. Quarterbacks have won this award 11 straight times and 16 times in the last 17 seasons. The only season in which a quarterback did not win MVP in that span was a 2,000-yard rushing season from Adrian Peterson in 2012.
It has been firmly established that non-quarterbacks need to have historically great campaigns to even be considered for the MVP award in the NFL. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have won the award before quickly melting back into anonymity upon regressing to their respective means. But that is simply the lay of the land with this award, and bettors need to adjust to it accordingly, even if they know that many skill position and defensive players deserve consideration that they will never get.
This season, quarterbacks once again dominate the list of favorites to win the NFL MVP award. The only question is which one is going to claim it. Here, we take a look at the odds to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award in 2024.
2024 NFL MVP Odds
Player | ![]() |
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---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mahomes
|
+650 | +500 | +500 | +475 | +500 |
Allen
|
+800 | +900 | +1000 | +850 | +800 |
Burrow
|
+900 | +900 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 |
Jackson
|
+1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1400 | +1400 |
Stroud
|
+1200 | +1000 | +1000 | ||
Herbert
|
+1200 | +1400 | +1500 | +1800 | +1600 |
Stroud
|
+1400 | +850 | +1000 | ||
Prescott
|
+1500 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
Love
|
+1500 | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 |
Purdy
|
+1600 | +1600 | +1800 | +1400 | +2000 |
Hurts
|
+1800 | +1600 | +1400 | +1500 | +1400 |
Stafford
|
+2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 |
Rodgers
|
+2500 | +2000 | +2200 | +1600 | +2500 |
Tagovailoa
|
+2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 |
Lawrence
|
+3000 | +2500 | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 |
McCaffrey
|
+3500 | +5000 | +3500 | +4000 | +5000 |
Goff
|
+3500 | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 | +3500 |
Richardson
|
+4000 | +3500 | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
Cousins
|
+4000 | +3500 | +4000 | +3500 | +4000 |
Watson
|
+5000 | +6600 | +5000 | +6000 | +7500 |
With this market, the goal above all else is to find a quarterback who has the potential to have a huge year at a good price. Bettors need to keep in mind that it takes production and winning games to win this award, which is usually just given to the quarterback with the best numbers on one of the top three or four teams. Who will that be this season? Let’s take a closer look at the favorites to narrow down the list.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The early favorite to win the 2024 NFL MVP award is Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes just won Super Bowl MVP in leading his team to a championship in just the second overtime game in Super Bowl history. He is the most gifted pure passer in the league, which will always give him a chance to claim this award, even if the Chargers and Raiders getting better could make it tougher for him to win games in 2024.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is a very talented quarterback who has been a fixture on the list of NFL MVP favorites going into recent seasons. But he no longer has Stefon Diggs to throw to, which is a big concern given how important Diggs was to his success in the recent past. For Allen to win this award, he will need to develop a rapport with a new top receiver in a hurry.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Last year was an injury-plagued one for Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, as he was never quite right physically before being shut down for the year. Now that he is back on the field, the question will be whether or not he can remain healthy enough to give the Bengals a productive year from start to finish. If he can, he could come away with the MVP award for himself.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Last season, Lamar Jackson won his second career NFL MVP award. Thankfully for Jackson, this award is based strictly on regular season performance, as his struggles in the postseason once again cost the Ravens a trip to the Super Bowl. But for another regular season, Jackson should be dangerous enough to remain in consideration for this award once again.
Other Players With a Chance
When it comes to picking an NFL MVP candidate at longer odds than the aforementioned favorites, bettors can simply pick a quarterback they think has a better chance than their current odds. Players like Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts could all be decent selections at longer odds, as team performance will dictate who wins MVP just as much as individual statistics will.
2024 NFL MVP Futures Prediction
Our pick to win this year’s MVP award in the NFL is Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. Tagovailoa is in a very winnable division in the AFC East, where the Bills could struggle and the Jets and Patriots have a lot to prove before they are taken seriously themselves. If Tagovailoa stays healthy and continues having success with weapons like Tyreek Hill, he could come through for bettors in this market in 2024.