Jay Sanin on February 6, 2025
Patrick Mahomes projections and prop bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles on Feb 9, 2025
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In throwing a colossal 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) in this regard.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have averaged 26.4 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: fewest in the league.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the NFL against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 24 Completions in this weeks game.
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
Patrick Mahomes's rushing efficiency (7.67 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (96th percentile among QBs).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 35.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to accumulate 3.7 carries this week, on average: the fewest among all QBs.
With a terrible record of 1.19 yards-after-contact (22nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes places as one of the worst running QBs in the NFL this year.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 102.0 per game) against the Eagles defense this year.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 22.9 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 35.4% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to accumulate 3.7 carries this week, on average: the fewest among all QBs.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Philadelphia's group of LBs has been great this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 3.7 Carries in this weeks game.
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In throwing a colossal 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) in this regard.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have averaged 26.4 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: fewest in the league.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the NFL against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 6th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.25 per game this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 2 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In throwing a colossal 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) in this regard.
Opposing teams have averaged 26.4 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: fewest in the league.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 39.2 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In throwing a colossal 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) in this regard.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have averaged 26.4 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: fewest in the league.
Philadelphia's defense ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year when it comes to generating interceptions, totaling 0.81 per game.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 0.8 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In throwing a colossal 33.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) in this regard.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have averaged 26.4 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: fewest in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (233.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
Opposing teams have thrown for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 160.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Eagles defense this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 254.7 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
