Bills vs Vikings Player Prop Predictions: Top 3 Picks for November 9, 2026
Updated November 6, 2026
Updated November 6, 2026
The Buffalo Bills (6-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) on Monday, November 9, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. ET in a Week 9 showdown featuring the NFL's highest-scoring offense against its stingiest defense. Buffalo averages 33.3 points per game, while Minnesota allows just 13.2. The Vikings also face a significant quarterback change, with Carson Wentz starting in place of the injured Kyler Murray. Our Bills vs. Vikings player prop predictions examine 3 Polymarket opportunities, comparing probability estimates against market prices to identify potential value.
Allen's Scoring Streak
Allen has already rushed for 9 touchdowns in 7 games this season, reaching the end zone in 6 of those appearances. He added another rushing score against Baltimore in Week 8, complementing 289 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns. A conservative 59% projection still puts him 4% above Polymarket's 55¢ price.
Allen's Improvisation
Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has used blitzes on approximately 73% of defensive snaps, creating an unusual test for Buffalo's offense. Allen's mobility provides an alternative when pressure disrupts the passing game, especially near the goal line, where the quarterback can become a direct rushing threat.
Recommended Position:
Allen 1+ TD
Market Price:
55¢
Model Probability:
59%
Market-Implied Probability:
55%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
56¢
Model Confidence:
62/100
6 Straight Games With a TD
Cook enters Monday with 707 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns on 138 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt. He has scored a rushing touchdown in 6 consecutive games, including Buffalo's 36-10 victory over Baltimore, when he handled 21 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo has also converted approximately 72% of its red-zone possessions into touchdowns, ranking among the NFL's most efficient offenses in that area.
Cook's Heavy Workload
The biggest obstacle is that Cook shares scoring opportunities with Allen, whose 9 rushing touchdowns lead Buffalo. That division of opportunities becomes particularly important against a Vikings defense that rarely allows easy points. Still, Cook has received at least 21 carries in 5 of his last 6 games, providing a dependable foundation for his scoring projection.
Recommended Position:
Cook 1+ TD
Market Price:
53¢
Model Probability:
57%
Market-Implied Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
54¢
Model Confidence:
61/100
Inconsistent Play
Wentz will make his second start of the season after Kyler Murray suffered a hamstring injury against Detroit. In his previous start, Wentz completed 11 of 20 attempts for 143 yards without a touchdown against Chicago. He was considerably more productive in relief against Green Bay, completing 12 of 19 passes for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns. Minnesota ranks 30th in offensive EPA per play, making it difficult to assume that a quarterback change will immediately produce an efficient passing attack.
Improving Buffalo Defense
Buffalo's defense provides a legitimate counterargument, having surrendered 15 passing touchdowns in 7 games. However, its most recent performance was encouraging, limiting Baltimore to 91 passing yards and zero passing touchdowns. The Bills also allowed touchdowns on just 3 of their opponents' last 8 red-zone possessions, an improvement from earlier in the season.
Recommended Position:
Under 1.5 Pass TDs
Market Price:
57¢
Model Probability:
60%
Market-Implied Probability:
57%
Model Edge:
3%
Entry Threshold:
58¢
Model Confidence:
56/100
Polymarket currently lists Buffalo at 62.25¢ to win Monday night's Bills vs Vikings matchup, compared with 38¢ for Minnesota. The Bills are also priced at 47¢ to win by more than 3.5 points, showing that traders favor Buffalo without necessarily expecting a comfortable victory. The full-game total offers another useful reference, with over 44.5 points priced at 52¢.
Buffalo enters with one of the NFL's most productive offenses, while Minnesota has allowed just 93 points in 7 games. The quarterback change adds another variable, although Wentz's previous experience in Kevin O'Connell's offense should help limit the disruption.
Our 3 player prop predictions fit a scenario in which Buffalo remains the more dangerous offensive team but encounters sustained resistance from Minnesota's defense. Allen and Cook can both reach the end zone without the Bills producing their usual 33.3 points, particularly if rushing plays account for a large share of their scoring.
Wentz finishing with fewer than 2 passing touchdowns is also consistent with a competitive, lower-scoring game in which Minnesota relies on its defense and running game to remain close. These outcomes are not independent, however, and their combined exposure increases the importance of Buffalo's rushing production. Each prediction offers a relatively small projected advantage, so maintaining price discipline is essential.
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