Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Preview, Lineups & Analysis

Nicolas Jackson vs Harry Maguire

Jackson has scored five of Villa's ten league goals from 3.52 xG, and has proved more than capable of replacing the departed Ollie Watkins.

This said, the numbers point to his finishing actually underperforming his xG, with his xGOT figure sitting at 2.64. This points to possible scoring regression for the Senegal international in the near future.

Maguire wins the aerial battle against almost anyone. He's won 77.5% of his aerial duels and averages 4.2 interceptions per 90.

Jackson has won only 25.9% of his, so he won't try to beat Maguire in the air, and instead will be looking to punish any space he is afforded in behind the United backline.

United concede 0.63 goal involvements per match to centre-forwards, the sixth-most in the league, and Jackson will be looking to become the latest striker to score against United

Edge: Jackson. Maguire is strongest when the ball is in the air, but Jackson's movement will cause Maguire and the rest of United's back line plenty of problems.

Bruno Fernandes vs Boubacar Kamara

Fernandes is still the hub of United's attack. He's created 20 chances and averages 9.3 progressive passes and 8.2 passes into the final third per 90. He takes their corners, free kicks and penalties. However, all three of his league goals came in the win over Ipswich over a month ago.

Kamara is the player tasked with stopping him. He averages 7.2 recoveries and 3.9 interceptions per 90, and Villa concede 0.63 goal involvements per match to attacking midfielders, the fourth-most in the league.

Edge: Fernandes, narrowly. Kamara can limit his time on the ball, but Fernandes' set-piece delivery doesn't depend on it.

Amad Diallo vs Ian Maatsen

This is an area United will look to exploit. Villa concede 0.29 xG per match to right wingers, and their 0.5 goal involvements per match to that position is the third-most in the league.

The question is whether Amad do anything with the opportunities he is given. He averages 3.7 touches in the box per 90, but he's yet to score or assist in 315 league minutes.

Maatsen, meanwhile, averages 5.6 interceptions per 90 but has won only 26% of his duels, and as Villa's only fit full-back, he'll have no one to rotate with.

Edge: Amad, if he finds an end product. The space is there, and it's high time he found some end product in a United attack crying out for consistent output.

How good is United's attack?

United's season xG total of 16.95 looks healthy until you take out one afternoon. They created 5.68 xG in the 5-2 win over Ipswich, a third of their season total.

In the seven league games since, they've produced 9.46 xG, about 1.35 per match, and scored five goals. They've taken four points from those games, and conceded 11.

United take a high number of shots from range. They take 18 shots per match, but they've scored only six open-play goals from 12.8 xG, pointing to high production of low-quality chances Bryan Mbeumo leads them with four goals from 3.28 xG.

My view: once Ipswich is removed, United's attack is ordinary. Villa's defence is the main reason to expect them to score.

Who wins the set piece battle

Set pieces make up 34% of Villa's xG, and five of their ten league goals have come from dead balls, from 4.9 xG.

That's a problem for United. They concede 0.5 goal involvements per match to centre-backs, the most in the league, and they've let in four set-piece goals from 3.5 xG. Martínez's suspension also removes one of their first-choice centre-backs, though his small statutre often makes him a target from set pieces. 

Villa have their own weakness here. 37% of the xG they concede comes from set pieces, and they rank second for goal involvements conceded to centre-backs. Maguire's aerial record makes him United's obvious target from Fernandes' delivery.

My view: both sides look vulnerable from dead balls, but Villa have been the more effective. This is their most reliable route to a goal.

Can Villa's defence cope without its full-backs?

Villa have allowed 17.83 xG, or 1.98 per match, and face 14.6 shots per game. Their 12 points are slightly ahead of their 10.67 expected points, helped by beating City despite being outshot on xG, 2.0 to 0.8.

Now they're down to one senior full-back. Lindelöf at right-back would leave Villa less mobile against Cunha, and Maatsen has to deal with United's main route down their right.

Tuesday's 3-0 defeat at Barcelona came with Cash and Maatsen both playing. This back four will be less settled than that one.

My view: Villa will concede chances at Old Trafford. The question is whether United are able to take them.

I expect an open game, a thesis supported by numerous defensive absences on both sides. United will have more of the ball and the shots, mostly from distance, while Villa look for Jackson in behind on the counter and threaten from set pieces.

The case against goals at both ends is United's attack. Five goals in seven league games since Ipswich is a poor return, and Villa have failed to score in three of their nine league games.

Even so, United haven't kept a league clean sheet this season, and Villa's makeshift defence gives United room. My preference is both teams to score. The ATS Quantitative Model projects a 2-1 United win, which fits that view.