3 Chargers vs Ravens Player Props for Monday Night Football
Updated November 13, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
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Updated November 13, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Monday Night Football is giving us a pretty ugly matchup this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers (0-8), the NFL's only remaining winless team, travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens (4-5) on Monday, November 16, at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Chargers' second season under Jim Harbaugh has been a bigger disaster than just about anyone could've imagined, while the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens have lost four straight games, including three consecutive blowouts by 22+ points.
But hey, it's the only NFL game on Monday night, so we'll be watching. And despite how bad these teams have looked, there are still some interesting player props worth considering.
Below, I'll break down three of my favorite Chargers vs. Ravens player props, using stats, recent trends, and matchup data to find potential value at the current Polymarket prices.
Baltimore's Slow Pace and Run-Heavy Offense
The Ravens average just 55 offensive plays per game, eighth-fewest in the league. They also average 138 rushing yards per game, tied for fourth-most. With Derrick Henry in the backfield and Baltimore favored by 4.5 points, there's a good chance the Ravens lean on their running game rather than ask Brissett to throw 35-40 times.
Brissett's Poor Passing Efficiency
Brissett has completed 193 of 305 passes for 1,719 yards this season, averaging just 5.64 yards per attempt. At that rate, he'd need roughly 40 attempts to reach 225 yards. And the Chargers have faced relatively little passing volume themselves, with opponents averaging just 29.1 attempts per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL.
Limited Time to Learn Baltimore's Offense
Brissett arrived in Baltimore just last week after being traded from Arizona. Even he described learning the Ravens' playbook as a "crash course." With so little preparation time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baltimore simplify things and rely more heavily on Henry rather than put too much on Brissett's shoulders.
Recommended Prediction:
Brissett 225+ Pass Yds (No)
Current Market Price:
56¢
Model Under Probability:
61.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
56.0%
Model Edge:
+5.5 pp
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Confidence:
74/100
Cleared This Line in 5 of 8 Games
Hampton has rushed for at least 30 yards in five of his eight games this season (62.5%), averaging 46.1 yards per game. He also bounced back with 60 yards on 13 carries against Houston last week after being held to just 38 yards combined in his previous two games.
The Chargers Are Surprisingly Run-Heavy
Despite their 0-8 record, Los Angeles has a -10.1% pass rate over expected (PROE), meaning they've thrown the ball significantly less often than expected based on game situations. That's encouraging for Hampton's opportunities, even if the Chargers fall behind early against Baltimore.
Doesn't Need Many Carries to Get There
Hampton is averaging 12.75 carries per game, and he only needs 3.0 yards per carry on 10 attempts to reach 30 yards. Even against a stout Ravens defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, that's a manageable target if he gets a workload similar to last week's 13 carries.
Recommended Prediction:
Hampton 30+ Rush Yds (Yes)
Current Market Price:
56¢
Model Over Probability:
60.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
56.0%
Model Edge:
+4.8 pp
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Confidence:
71/100
Henry's Consistent TD Production
Henry has eight rushing touchdowns through nine games this season after scoring 16 in 2025. That's 24 rushing touchdowns over his last 26 regular-season games. While he's scored in just one of his last five games, his production over the past two seasons shows why he's still one of the NFL's biggest touchdown threats.
Chargers Allow Plenty of Rushing TDs
Los Angeles has allowed 1.38 rushing touchdowns per game this season, third-most in the NFL and roughly 47% above the league average (0.94). That's an encouraging matchup for Henry, especially since he doesn't need a huge rushing performance to find the end zone.
Baltimore's Run-Heavy Offense
The Ravens average 138 rushing yards per game, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. They're also 4.5-point favorites against a winless Chargers team, which could allow them to stick with their running game throughout the night. If Baltimore can sustain drives and get into scoring position, Henry should have opportunities to finish them.
Recommended Prediction:
Henry Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model TD Probability:
59.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
55.0%
Model Edge:
+4.4 pp
Buy Up To:
57¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
The Ravens enter Monday night as 4.5-point favorites (49¢ to cover), with their moneyline trading at 67¢ on Polymarket, implying roughly a 67% chance of winning outright. That's despite Jacoby Brissett making his first start since arriving from Arizona.
Meanwhile, the over/under is set at just 38.5 points (53¢ for the over), one of the lowest totals on the Week 10 slate. And it's low for a reason. The ATS Quantitative Model also likes the under, projecting a 21-17 Ravens win.
So, how does that expected game script fit with our three player props? Pretty well, actually.
If Baltimore gets out in front, there's not much reason for the Ravens to have Brissett throwing the ball all over the field. That would help our passing yards under. And even in a low-scoring game, Baltimore will probably need a touchdown or two to win. Henry is as good a bet as anyone to score one of them.
Hampton's rushing yards over is the one pick that doesn't fit quite as neatly. The Chargers could be forced to throw more if they fall behind, but as we mentioned earlier, Los Angeles has been surprisingly committed to running the ball regardless of the score.
Of course, the game could play out differently than expected. But if we get something close to the 21-17 Ravens win our model predicts, I like how our three player props line up with that outcome.
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