College Football Week 11: 3 Sneaky Games With Major Playoff Implications
Updated November 12, 2026
Updated November 12, 2026
We've got another great college football slate on tap for Week 11. No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana. No. 2 Utah at No. 23 Arizona. No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU. No. 1 Georgia at No. 22 Missouri. And plenty of other games with major playoff implications.
But beyond those headline matchups, there are three under-the-radar games that could have just as much impact on the College Football Playoff race.
These are the games you'll want to add to your YouTube TV quad box, or at least check the score every now and then on your phone, especially if your favorite team is on the playoff bubble.
Below, I'll preview each matchup, explain what's at stake, and look at what the latest Polymarket prices tell us about the chances of an upset.
No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1, 5-1 ACC) has a lot riding on Saturday's road matchup against SMU (7-2, 5-2 ACC).
A win would put the Demon Deacons on the brink of an ACC Championship Game appearance, where they'd have a chance to win the conference title and earn an automatic berth in the College Football Playoff.
But that's not their only path.
If Wake Forest wins out in the regular season and then loses a potential ACC Championship Game rematch against No. 7 Miami, it would finish 11-2 with a strong case for an at-large bid.
That's why teams like No. 14 Houston, No. 15 Iowa, and No. 16 Oregon should be rooting for SMU on Saturday. They're all competing with Wake Forest for a limited number of at-large spots, and another loss for the Demon Deacons would make it much harder for the ACC to send two teams to the playoff.
And an SMU win is certainly on the table. The Mustangs are 12-0 in ACC home games since joining the conference in 2024, and the latest Polymarket prices give them a 52% implied chance of winning.
For a closer look at the matchup, check out ATS.io's quantitative model prediction for Wake Forest vs. SMU, including the projected score and win probabilities.
Like Wake Forest, No. 12 Texas Tech has a clear path to its conference championship game. But Saturday night's trip to No. 25 Oklahoma State could change that in a hurry.
The Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) are currently second in the conference behind undefeated Utah. Win their final three regular-season games, and they'll be back in the Big 12 Championship Game, with a chance to defend their title and earn an automatic playoff berth.
But a loss to Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) would throw a wrench into those plans.
The Cowboys would pull even with Texas Tech in the conference standings and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, opening the door for teams like BYU, Houston, and Arizona to move ahead in the race for the championship game.
And the implications go beyond the Big 12. With Utah at No. 2, BYU at No. 10, and Texas Tech at No. 12 in the latest CFP rankings, the conference has a chance to send two or potentially even three teams to the playoff. A Texas Tech loss would make that less likely, potentially opening up an at-large spot for a team from another conference.
Interestingly enough, an Oklahoma State win wouldn't technically be an upset, at least according to Polymarket. Despite being the lower-ranked team, the Cowboys currently have a 61% implied win probability.
And ATS.io's quantitative model prediction for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State also favors the lower-ranked Cowboys. Check out the full matchup breakdown for its projected score and analysis.
The last game on my list might look like a mismatch on paper, with No. 8 Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC) visiting a Texas A&M team that's just 4-5 overall and 1-5 in conference play. But there's a lot riding on this one when the two teams meet Saturday at 3 p.m. ET.
Tennessee jumped five spots in the latest CFP rankings after beating No. 11 Kentucky 34-6 last weekend. The Volunteers also have a 26-10 win over No. 3 Alabama, giving them two double-digit wins over teams currently ranked in the top 11.
That's a pretty strong résumé for a two-loss team. But a loss to Texas A&M could put Tennessee's playoff hopes in serious jeopardy, especially with No. 21 LSU and in-state rival Vanderbilt still on the schedule.
That's why teams like No. 10 BYU, No. 12 Texas Tech, No. 14 Houston, and No. 15 Iowa should be rooting for the Aggies. A third Tennessee loss could help those teams move up in the CFP rankings and improve their chances of earning an at-large bid.
Unlike Wake Forest and Texas Tech, Tennessee is actually favored to win on Saturday. But not by much. The latest Polymarket prices give the Volunteers just a 56% implied chance of winning, so despite Texas A&M's poor record, the Aggies have a real shot at shaking up the playoff race.
For another look at the matchup, check out ATS.io's quantitative model prediction for Tennessee vs. Texas A&M, including its projected score and analysis.
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