NFL Week 10: 3 Big Games, 3 Matchups That Could Decide Them

Vikings vs. Packers: Green Bay's Answer to the Blitz

Most of the attention surrounding Sunday's NFC North matchup will be on Kirk Cousins, who is expected to start for Minnesota just days after being traded back to the Vikings from the Raiders. But there's another matchup I'm particularly interested in: Jordan Love against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense.

Minnesota has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season. The Vikings lead the NFL in defensive EPA per play (-0.17) and blitz on an incredible 72.5% of opposing dropbacks, more than 20 percentage points higher than any other team.

But here's what makes this matchup interesting. Love has been one of the NFL's best quarterbacks against the blitz, leading the league with 967 passing yards and tying for first with 10 touchdown passes when defenses send extra rushers.

We saw how this could play out in Week 1. Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota, and Green Bay completed seven passes of at least 20 yards. However, a late strip-sack and interception helped the Vikings pull away for a 39-22 win.

The question is whether Green Bay can take advantage of Minnesota's aggressive approach again, this time without the costly mistakes. Playing at Lambeau Field could help with offensive line communication, especially against a defense that does such a good job disguising pressure.

Our Vikings vs. Packers prediction and preview has more on Sunday's matchup, including the ATS Quantitative Model's projected score and the latest betting trends.

49ers vs. Cowboys: Third Downs Will Decide the Game

The 49ers have one of the NFL's most efficient offenses, and the Cowboys have one of its worst defenses. That alone makes this a tough matchup for Dallas, but there's one area in particular that could make a big difference on Sunday: third downs.

San Francisco ranks second in the NFL with a 51.7% third-down conversion rate, while Dallas ranks 31st defensively, allowing opponents to convert 49.1% of the time. In other words, the 49ers move the chains on more than half of their third downs, and the Cowboys struggle to get off the field.

A big reason for San Francisco's success is what happens before third down. The 49ers lead the league in early-down EPA per play and offensive success rate, regularly putting themselves in manageable situations on third down. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks 30th in early-down EPA allowed.

Getting pressure on Brock Purdy could help, but that hasn't been easy, either. San Francisco has allowed sacks on just 3.1% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL, while Dallas ranks 23rd in defensive sack rate.

And with the 49ers scoring touchdowns on roughly 85% of their red-zone trips, the Cowboys can't afford to let them keep extending drives.

Dallas has a productive offense of its own, so this could turn into a high-scoring game. But can the Cowboys get enough defensive stops to keep pace with San Francisco, or will Purdy and the 49ers spend the afternoon extending drives and controlling the clock?

For a closer look at how these teams stack up, see our full 49ers vs. Cowboys preview, where you'll find the ATS Quantitative Model's score projection, key stats, and betting trends.

Steelers vs. Bengals: Can Cincinnati Stop the Run?

The last game we'll look at is Sunday night's showdown between the Steelers and Bengals, with first place in the AFC North on the line. Both teams enter at 6-2, and with the playoff race starting to take shape, this is a pretty important game for both sides.

A lot of the attention will be on Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered passing offense, but I'm more interested in what happens when Pittsburgh runs the ball.

The Steelers have quietly become one of the NFL's most efficient rushing teams, ranking first in EPA per designed run (+0.10) and explosive run rate (11%). Jaylen Warren has been a big reason why, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and coming off a 143-yard performance against Cleveland.

That's not great news for Cincinnati. The Bengals rank 26th in EPA per designed run allowed and 30th in explosive run rate allowed (9.3%).

What's interesting is that Cincinnati actually leads the NFL in stuff rate, stopping 26.4% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage. The problem comes when opponents get past that first wave of defenders, where those runs can turn into much bigger gains.

We saw how costly that could be in the first meeting. Warren broke off a big run to set up the game-winning field goal in Pittsburgh's 30-27 victory. He's also topped 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games against Cincinnati.

The Steelers don't run the ball as often as you might expect, but with Burrow and the Bengals capable of putting up points quickly, leaning on Warren could help Pittsburgh sustain drives and keep Cincinnati's offense on the sideline.

Can the Bengals limit those big runs, or will Pittsburgh find another way to exploit their defense? That's one of the biggest things I'll be watching on Sunday night.

You can see how the ATS Quantitative Model expects this one to play out in our Steelers vs. Bengals prediction, along with the latest betting trends and matchup stats.