England vs Croatia Prediction

Nations League group stage, four matches each. Per game unless marked as a total.

What the numbers say

England's xGA is inflated by one game. Spain created 3.12 xG in the opening 3-2 defeat, and England have conceded only 1.88 xG and no goals in the three games since.

Croatia's numbers are skewed by the 7-0. England's 6.43 xG that day accounts for well over half of the 10.31 Croatia have conceded, but even without it they've allowed almost 1.3 xG a game and seven goals in three matches.

Key players, Nations League group stage

Kane has scored six from 3.24 xG, and his shots on target were worth 3.69 xGOT. He's placing his finishes well, though scoring at nearly double his xG won't last forever. He's also missed a penalty in this campaign.

Bellingham is England's creator. He's made 14 chances, seven of them big chances, along with 2.01 xA and 30 passes into the final third. Four of those chances have become goals.

Gordon has 26 touches in the box in only 221 minutes, and seven of his ten shots have been on target. Two of his three goals have been headers. Anderson makes England tick from deep. He's completed 286 of 305 passes, with 37 passes into the final third and 20 line-breaking passes.

Kovačić is Croatia's main creator, with six chances and 1.05 xA. Modrić is still reading the game, with seven interceptions, but he's played only 208 minutes across the four games.

Both sides line up in a 4-2-3-1, but they use it very differently. England build through Declan Rice and Anderson, with Anderson the one who breaks lines: his 20 line-breaking passes are the most of any England player in this campaign. Bellingham plays as the 10, with Gordon and Rio Ngumoha wide.

Kane's movement makes the system work. He drops deep to receive, with 18 passes into the final third of his own, and that pulls Croatia's centre-backs up the pitch. Gordon and Bellingham then attack the space he leaves. Against Croatia in October, it gave England 12 big chances.

 Croatia's midfield is the problem. Modrić and Kovačić are still excellent on the ball, but in their three games against England and Spain, Croatia averaged just 33% possession, and the veteran midfield pairing are being run ragged by opponents. Without Šutalo and Pongračić, there's less pace behind them when England break.

Croatia's best route to goal is crosses. All three of their headed goals came from open play, not set pieces, and Ante Budimir is the obvious target. England are without Guéhi and Konsa, so Dan Burn and James Hill are likely to pair up in the middle. Croatia will miss Perišić's delivery, though, after his red card against Spain.

Game state could help the goals market. England only need a draw to go through, but a win keeps their hopes of top spot alive before Sunday's trip to Spain, and Croatia have little to lose. If England score early, Croatia will have to come out, and that's when the gaps open.