Italy vs France Prediction: Predicted Lineups & Tactical Breakdown

Nations League group stage, four matches each. Per game unless marked as a total.

What the numbers say

France control games but create little. They average almost twice as many touches in the box as Italy, yet they’ve made only nine big chances in four games to Italy’s 15.

Italy are open at both ends. They create more than France but also concede 2.11 xG and 16.5 shots per game. Gianluigi Donnarumma’s saves are the main reason they’ve let in only five goals from 8.43 xGA.

France’s finishing has carried them. They’ve scored 1.5 more goals than their xG, and five of their seven have come after the 75th minute.

October’s meeting followed the same pattern. France had 65% of the ball in Paris, but Italy out-created them 1.55 xG to 1.17.

Key players, Nations League group stage

Olise has scored four goals from just 1.08 xG. His shots on target were worth 2.07 xGOT, so he’s placing them well, but scoring nearly double that is a rate few players sustain.

Doué is France’s most creative player. He leads them in xA (1.00), touches in the box (25) and successful dribbles (8 of 15), and he’s also made nine tackles. He’s expected to play as the false nine tonight.

Da Cunha doesn’t get into the box, but he moves the ball. He’s completed 192 of his 204 passes and made 22 passes into the final third, the most of any player in the table.

Pio Esposito is Italy’s focal point. Five of his six shots have been on target, he has 22 touches in the box, and he’s won half of his aerial duels.

Bastoni has two goals from only 0.43 xG. He’s also completed 91% of his passes and made 12 passes into the final third from centre-back.

Tonali rarely shoots or creates, but he’s the player who starts Italy’s breaks. He’s completed 138 of 151 passes and leads the Italian midfield with 15 recoveries.

The first meeting set the pattern. France had the ball, circulated it patiently and struggled to break down an Italian side happy to defend deep and break. Expect the same tonight, except this time France are without the two players most likely to unlock a low block, Mbappé and Dembélé.

That puts more on Olise. He'll start on the right and cut inside onto his left foot, and Calafiori's job is to stop him getting there. Doué will drop off from the false nine role to link with Cherki, which leaves France short of a penalty-box presence. Bradley Barcola's pace on the left is their main threat in behind.

Italy's chances will come in transition. Without Tchouaméni, France's midfield three of Cherki, Da Cunha and Rabiot doesn't have a natural screen, and Nicolò Barella and Davide Frattesi will run beyond Pio Esposito whenever Italy win the ball. Sandro Tonali is the player who starts those breaks.

Set pieces could decide it. Bastoni, Giorgio Scalvini and Pio Esposito are all aerial threats, and both Calafiori and Pio Esposito have scored headers in this campaign. France will be without Saliba and Koundé, and Upamecano is only just back from suspension.

The danger for Italy is the last 20 minutes. France have scored five of their seven goals after the 75th minute, and Italy have conceded in every group game. If it's level late on, Zidane's bench is where France will look.