Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction - November 16, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 38.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 56.5%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 52.38%
• ●Model Edge: 4.12%
• ●Entry Threshold: -130
• ●Model Confidence: 74/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Baltimore Ravens 21, Los Angeles Chargers 16
• ●Projected Total: 37

Why This Position Stands Out

The strongest angle is the game staying below the total. Baltimore has been modest on offense, averaging 21.0 points per game, while Los Angeles has struggled even more at 14.14 points per game. The Chargers also bring the weaker efficiency profile, with 4.69 yards per play on offense and a turnover margin of -6.0, which limits their ability to sustain drives and create enough scoring chances to push this game into a higher total.

Matchup Overview

Baltimore enters with a clearer path on offense because its rushing attack has been more productive at 137.8 yards per game, and Los Angeles has allowed 124.57 rushing yards per game. The Chargers have had trouble generating consistent offense overall, and their 14.14 points per game is the lowest figure in this matchup. On the other side, Baltimore has allowed 26.22 points per game, but Los Angeles has not shown enough efficiency to fully exploit that weakness. Both teams have also been poor against the number this season, which points to a market that may still be pricing in more scoring than this matchup is likely to produce.