3 Commanders vs Giants Player Props for Thursday Night Football
Updated November 11, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
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Updated November 11, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
The Washington Commanders (2-5-1) travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants (5-2-1) on Thursday Night Football, November 12. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, with the game streaming on Amazon Prime Video.
New York is coming off a 19-11 win over Philadelphia, while Washington lost 20-13 to the Rams last week. The two teams also played to a 27-27 tie in Week 5, when the Commanders blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead and ran out of time before attempting a potential game-winning field goal in overtime.
Rather than picking a side or total in this NFC East rematch, I think there could be more value in the player prop markets. I've picked out three predictions I like at their current Polymarket prices. Below, I'll explain each one using the stats, recent trends, and matchups.
Over in All 4 Career Games vs. Giants
Daniels has cleared this line in all four career meetings with New York, rushing for 35, 44, 68, and 103 yards. He's averaged 62.5 rushing yards on 9.5 carries in those games, including a season-high 103 yards on nine attempts when these teams met in Week 5.
Giants Struggle Against Mobile Quarterbacks
New York is allowing 29.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the second-most in the NFL and nearly double the league average of 15.7. Daniels isn't the only one who's had success, either. Tyler Shough rushed for 32 yards against the Giants this season, while Joe Milton III had 64.
Potential for More Rushing Attempts
Daniels has averaged just 3.3 carries and 16.3 rushing yards over his last three games. That's a concern, but Dan Quinn has emphasized the need to stick with the run, and Washington is dealing with injuries in its backfield. If Daniels gets even six or seven carries against New York, I like his chances of reaching 30 yards.
Recommended Prediction:
Daniels 30+ Rush Yds (Yes)
Current Market Price:
59¢
Model Over Probability:
65.3%
Market-Implied Probability:
59.0%
Model Edge:
+6.3%
Buy Up To:
64¢
Model Confidence:
78/100
Strong Track Record Against Washington
Nabers has topped 70 receiving yards in three of his four career games against the Commanders, averaging 94.5 yards per game. That includes 121 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches when these teams met in Week 5. He's also gone over 120 yards twice against Washington.
One of the NFL's Most Targeted Receivers
Nabers has averaged 9.75 targets per game this season, accounting for nearly 30% of New York's targets. That share has climbed to 32.6% over his last five games. With an average of 12.2 yards per catch, he'd need just six receptions to reach 70 yards.
Recent Production and Favorable Matchup
Nabers has reached 70 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including three straight 100-yard performances before last week's loss to Philadelphia. Now he faces a Washington defense allowing 240 passing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL. Even after last week's 43-yard outing, I like his chances of bouncing back.
Recommended Prediction:
Nabers 70+ Rec Yds (Yes)
Current Market Price:
49¢
Model Over Probability:
54.7%
Market-Implied Probability:
49.0%
Model Edge:
+5.7%
Buy Up To:
53¢
Model Confidence:
74/100
Washington's Preferred Goal-Line Running Back
White has handled three of Washington's four backfield touches in goal-to-go situations since Jacory Croskey-Merritt went on injured reserve. He's also recorded three carries inside the 5-yard line this season, compared with none for Austin Ekeler. Even with the two splitting snaps, White has been getting the better scoring opportunities.
Two Ways to Find the End Zone
White has scored three touchdowns in seven games this season, including two receiving scores. He's also found the end zone in two of his last three games, once rushing and once receiving. That gives him a couple of ways to cash this prop without needing a huge workload.
Favorable Matchup Against the Giants
New York is allowing 123.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 21st in the NFL, and has given up seven rushing touchdowns in eight games. Croskey-Merritt scored on a 33-yard run against the Giants in Week 5, but he's now on injured reserve. With him and Jeremy McNichols unavailable, White should continue getting opportunities in Washington's backfield.
Recommended Prediction:
White Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
40¢
Model TD Probability:
45.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
40.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
44¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
The Giants enter Thursday Night Football with the better record, a three-game lead over Washington in the NFC East, and home-field advantage. Still, they're only 56¢ favorites on Polymarket, implying roughly a 56% chance of winning. The Giants -2.5 spread is priced at 51¢, suggesting another close matchup.
The total is set at 40.5 points, with the over trading at 53¢. That's quite a bit lower than the 54 combined points these teams scored in their 27-27 tie in Week 5. Our Commanders vs Giants model projection also favors New York.
So, what does this expected game script mean for our player props?
A close game could work in favor of both Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. Daniels may need to extend plays and pick up yards with his legs to keep Washington's drives alive, while the Giants should have reason to keep throwing rather than simply running out the clock.
The lower total isn't ideal for Rachaad White's anytime touchdown chances, since fewer points generally mean fewer scoring opportunities. However, with White getting most of Washington's goal-line backfield touches recently, I still like his chances of finding the end zone if the Commanders can put together a few scoring drives.
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