NFL Trade Deadline: How the Biggest Moves Affected the Markets
Updated November 11, 2026
Updated November 11, 2026
Chicago gave up two first-round picks for Jeffery Simmons. Jacksonville traded away its 2027 first- and second-round picks in a single afternoon. Minnesota’s quarterback room was in pieces, so it called a 38-year-old it had let walk in 2024. Four contenders left the 2026 trade deadline looking very different. Here’s what each one added, what it cost and how the Super Bowl picture has shifted.
Price to win Super Bowl LXI before each deal and on Nov. 11, 2026
Oct. 29
Added: DT Jeffery Simmons
Paid: 2027 1st, 2028 1st, 2027 4th (got back a 2028 5th)
Nov. 10
Added: QB Kirk Cousins
Paid: 2027 3rd
Nov. 9
Added: DT Jordan Davis, S Jessie Bates III, DT Davon Godchaux
Paid: 2027 1st + 2029 2nd (Davis), 2027 2nd + 2028 5th (Bates), conditional 6th (Godchaux)
Nov. 10
Added: WR Josh Downs
Paid: 2027 4th, 2027 5th (got back a 2027 7th)
"Before" is the last price ahead of the news breaking. "After" is the price on the morning of Nov. 11. Kalshi volume is in contracts. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi.
Simmons took Chicago from 5.95% to 7.0% on Polymarket within a day, and Kalshi traded about 15 times its usual Bears volume. The bigger move came after his debut.
After a stunning 34-17 Monday night win in Seattle, the Bears went from 7.65% to 10.55% on Polymarket before midnight. A walk-off win over Tampa Bay sent them into the bye at 7-2.
While the move for Simmons undoubtedly helped move the needle, it was the results, especially the outstanding all-round performance in Seattle on Monday Night Football, that really drove the Bears' price rise.
Carson Wentz was a disaster in Monday’s 23-6 loss to Buffalo, the third straight game in which Minnesota scored 16 or fewer. Less than a day later, Cousins arrived for a third-round pick.
Between 2 and 3 p.m ET (when the Cousins trade was rumored by Adam Schefter and later confirmed) on Tuesday, Kalshi traded 1.4 million Vikings contracts in a single hour. By Wednesday morning, Minnesota made up 2.3 million of the 4.2 million contracts traded across all 32 teams in the previous 24 hours.
At 3 or 4 cents each, those contracts were cheap, but no other team came close. Polymarket peaked at 5.75% overnight before settling around 5%. Cousins will receive a baptism of fire in Minnesota, however, with trips to Green Bay and San Francisco next up for the Vikings.
Jacksonville had drifted from 11.55% to 8.7% on Polymarket over the weekend despite blowing the doors off a depleted Ravens squad on Thursday Night Football.
Their move for Falcons' veteran safety Jessie Bates on Monday morning barely moved the price, but when Davon Godchaux and Jordan Davis followed, and it carried on into Tuesday. With the expensive deal for Davis plugging a DaVon Hamilton sized hole on the Jags D-Line, the markets responded by pumping the price to 12 cents.
Zoom out and it’s the biggest move on the board. Given a 5.85% of a first Lombardi on Oct. 26, Polymarket now give Liam Coen's squad a 12.25% chance of glory at SoFi in February.
The Jaguars are now third favorite on Polymarket, ahead of Chicago, and their $154,000 in weekly volume leads every team.
Kansas City needed a receiver after Xavier Worthy hurt his hamstring on Sunday, but the long-anticipated addition of Josh Downs didn’t change much.
Polymarket actually dipped from 8.45% to 8.35% when the news broke. Kalshi’s Tuesday volume was less than half of Sunday’s. An overnight jump to 9.55% on thin Polymarket trading wasn’t matched on Kalshi, which still sits at 8 cents.
That’s well short of the 11% range the Chiefs held in late October.
We're still backing the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl here at ATS. Josh Allen gives the Bills an X-factor no other team has, as Jay said in his Super Bowl Futures article.
While favorites San Francisco have been impressive considering their allegedly substation-induced injury list, their frailty is likely to cost them in the playoffs even if Brock Purdy remains hot.
But of the teams on this list it is perhaps the Jaguars and Vikings that are the most intriguing.
Jacksonville has sold away its future for a shot at glory this season, and the Davis trade in particular was a huge splash considering the Georgia product's limited impact at an NFL level at this stage in his career.
As for the Vikings, Justin Jefferson would certainly have 'liked that' to coin the inbound Cousins' most well-known phrase.
All season long Brian Flores' defense has been outstanding while the offense flounders, with pundits almost unanimous in their assertion that Minnesota was a quarterback away from being a contender.
Now we get to find out if Cousins, so hastily cast aside just three years ago, was really the Vikings' missing piece all along.
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