Sun Belt Basketball Championship Futures Predictions: Favorites & Contenders
Updated November 11, 2026
Updated November 11, 2026
The 2026-27 Sun Belt Conference men's basketball championship race features several legitimate contenders, with Arkansas State, James Madison, and defending champion Troy leading a competitive field. The conference's distinctive tournament format makes regular-season positioning especially important, as higher-seeded teams receive significant advantages on the path to the championship.
The preseason favorite has a talented new backcourt featuring Tameron Ferguson and Layne Taylor.
The Dukes received the most first-place votes in the preseason coaches poll.
The two-time defending conference tournament champion remains a serious contender.
The Jaguars are coming off consecutive 20-win seasons and could challenge for the title.
The Thundering Herd is an explosive offensive team capable of competing with the league's best.
The preseason favorite has a talented new backcourt featuring Tameron Ferguson and Layne Taylor.
The Dukes received the most first-place votes in the preseason coaches poll.
The two-time defending conference tournament champion remains a serious contender.
The Jaguars are coming off consecutive 20-win seasons and could challenge for the title.
The Thundering Herd is an explosive offensive team capable of competing with the league's best.
Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves to win the 2026-27 Sun Belt Tournament.
Arkansas State enters the championship race with one of the conference's strongest offensive track records. The Red Wolves averaged a league-leading 83.0 points per game during the 2025-26 season, secured 20 victories, and finished second in the conference standings. Although raw scoring averages do not account for pace, Arkansas State's offensive production and returning coaching system provide an encouraging foundation for any college basketball predictions backing them.
The most compelling statistical argument comes from Arkansas State's new backcourt. Tameron Ferguson recorded a 2.9 assist-to-turnover ratio at Augustana last season, while Layne Taylor produced a 3.37 ratio at Murray State, ranking 13th nationally. Both players bring proven ball-handling and decision-making ability, although Ferguson must demonstrate that his production translates from Division II competition.
James Madison will also be in the mix in the Sun Belt, having received nine first-place votes in the preseason coaches poll, while Troy's consecutive conference championships demonstrate its postseason credibility. However, Arkansas State's offensive upside and experienced backcourt give the Red Wolves a better path to the title.
Seeding Significance
The Sun Belt's unusual tournament format advances the top two regular-season seeds directly into the semifinals, requiring only two victories to claim the championship.
Uneven Tourney Paths
Teams seeded third or fourth must win three games, while teams seeded fifth or sixth need four victories, making regular-season positioning particularly valuable.
Conference Realignment
Louisiana Tech replaces Texas State for 2026-27, changing the conference's competitive makeup and making historical league statistics less directly comparable.
Neutral Site Tournament
The entire championship takes place at the Pensacola Bay Center, making teams' ability to execute away from their home arenas an important consideration.
