American Conference Basketball Championship Futures: Predictions, Favorites & Odds
Updated November 3, 2026
Updated November 3, 2026
The 2026-27 American Conference men's basketball championship race features several programs capable of competing for the conference's automatic NCAA Tournament berth. Wichita State and Memphis headline a competitive field, with roster changes, returning talent, and coaching adjustments creating plenty of uncertainty.
The preseason favorites return leading scorer Kenyon Giles and standout center Will Berg.
Penny Hardaway's rebuilt roster already has an impressive non-conference win over Iowa State.
The defending champions begin a new era under Chris Mack, with an extensively rebuilt roster.
Tulsa will try to build on an appearance in the 2026 NIT championship game this year.
New coach Wes Miller brings experience to a program that could emerge as a surprise contender.
The preseason favorites return leading scorer Kenyon Giles and standout center Will Berg.
Penny Hardaway's rebuilt roster already has an impressive non-conference win over Iowa State.
The defending champions begin a new era under Chris Mack, with an extensively rebuilt roster.
Tulsa will try to build on an appearance in the 2026 NIT championship game this year.
New coach Wes Miller brings experience to a program that could emerge as a surprise contender.
Prediction: Wichita State Shockers to Win the American Conference Tournament
Wichita State enters the 2026-27 season as our prediction to capture the American Conference Tournament championship. The Shockers finished as runners-up in 2026 and bring back an experienced core that should provide an advantage over conference rivals undergoing significant roster reconstruction. Wichita State returns 67.5% of its scoring from last season, including Kenyon Giles, who averaged 19.1 points per game and made a school-record 125 three-pointers. With Will Berg anchoring the interior and additional playmaking options available, the Shockers have the personnel to challenge for the conference's top seed.
Wichita State finished the 2025-26 season ranked 43rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 100.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponent strength. The Shockers also recorded a 38.8% offensive rebounding rate, demonstrating an ability to generate second-chance opportunities and control possession battles. Those established defensive and rebounding strengths could prove particularly valuable in a single-elimination tournament, where offensive rebounding can be the difference in outcomes in college basketball predictions.
Memphis is a major challenger, particularly with its incoming offensive talent, while South Florida and Tulsa also possess championship potential. However, Wichita State's combination of returning production, defensive efficiency, and interior strength makes the Shockers our preferred selection. If Paul Mills' team earns a top-two conference seed and advances directly to the semifinals, its chances of finishing the season with the American Conference championship become even more compelling.
Top-2 Advantage
The American Conference's top two regular-season finishers advance directly to the semifinals, giving them a substantial rest and scheduling advantage.
Qualification Criteria
Only 10 of the conference's 13 teams qualify for the championship tournament, making the regular-season standings important for lower-ranked contenders.
Home-Court Advantage
The 2027 championship takes place at USF's Yuengling Center in Tampa, potentially giving the Bulls a familiar environment and favorable crowd.
Unbalanced Scheduling
Each team faces six opponents twice and six opponents once, meaning differences in schedule difficulty can influence tournament seeding.
