Jay Sanin on January 26, 2025
Dalton Kincaid projections and prop bets for Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 26, 2025
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a remarkable 43.0 per game.
Dalton Kincaid's 41.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 35.7.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (60.0) to tight ends this year.
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
Dalton Kincaid's 31.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving skills over last year's 42.0 rate.
Dalton Kincaid's 61.9% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 81.6% mark.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Dalton Kincaid is projected to have 31.9 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 132.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dalton Kincaid's 41.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 35.7.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.2%) vs. tight ends this year (79.2%).
The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.4 plays per game.
Dalton Kincaid's play as a receiver has worsened this season, averaging a mere 2.9 adjusted receptions compared to 4.6 last season.
Dalton Kincaid's 61.9% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 81.6% mark.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Dalton Kincaid is projected to have 3 Receptions in this weeks game.
