The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is one that is associated with young quarterback play. But the recent reality of this award is that quarterbacks have been anything but guaranteed to win it. Only six of the last 12 recipients of this award have been quarterbacks. Instead, talented young wide receivers and running backs have had just as good a chance as first-year signal callers to claim it.
One big reason for the parity with this award is that rookie quarterbacks are often put into tough spots. If they are playing right away, it is a product of organizational distress in many cases. The roster issues that prompt a rookie quarterback to play immediately are not often conducive to big numbers, winning games, or winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Let’s look at the betting odds from our top NFL Sportsbooks for the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year and then handicap the top prices and other contenders.
Bettors can also take a look at our preview of the Defensive Rookie Of The Year award.
2024 NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ODDS
Player | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Williams
|
+350 | +200 | +240 | +200 | +170 |
Harrison Jr.
|
+600 | +600 | +650 | +600 | +650 |
Nabers
|
+650 | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 | +1400 |
Odunze
|
+1000 | +1800 | +2000 | +2200 | +2200 |
Daniels
|
+1300 | +650 | +650 | +650 | +500 |
Maye
|
+1400 | +2000 | +1800 | +1800 | +1900 |
McCarthy
|
+1600 | +850 | +1000 | +800 | +1400 |
Thomas Jr.
|
+2000 | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 | +3100 |
Bowers
|
+2000 | +3500 | +2500 | +3500 | +4200 |
Penix Jr.
|
+2800 | +5000 | +6000 | +8000 | |
Nix
|
+3000 | +2000 | +2000 | +1600 | +2200 |
Wright
|
+3000 | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +5000 |
Mitchell
|
+3500 | +4000 | +3000 | +3500 | +4200 |
McConkey
|
+3500 | +3000 | +2000 | +4000 | +3100 |
Benson
|
+3500 | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +6000 |
Corum
|
+4500 | +5000 | +4000 | +5000 | +8000 |
Brooks
|
+4500 | +5000 | +3000 | +5000 | +4200 |
Legette
|
+4500 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +5000 |
Worthy
|
+4500 | +1600 | +1000 | +1600 | +2200 |
Coleman
|
+5000 | +3000 | +2200 | +2800 | +2200 |
When looking at Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, usage is the biggest key of all. Bettors should ask themselves before locking in a bet on any player whether that player will see action regularly. On top of that, will those players see touches to go with any snaps that they do get? If the answers to those questions are yes, that player is at least worth considering for the award.
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
The number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was Caleb Williams, who was selected by the Chicago Bears. Williams had a great college career, including a couple of huge years as the signal caller at USC. But Justin Fields had a great college career as well before being derailed as a pro by the Bears organization, which is undoubtedly a concern for Williams as well despite his considerable physical tools.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last year despite LSU being nowhere near the national title conversation. Now he is set to replace Sam Howell as the quarterback of the Washington Commanders and is an instant contender to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. His slim build and the recent history of the Commanders are both huge concerns, however.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
After whiffing on Mac Jones in a previous draft, the New England Patriots are trying a new young quarterback, drafting Drake Maye third overall out of North Carolina. Maye might be the most NFL-ready prospect at quarterback in this year’s draft. But the departure of Bill Belichick and how poorly the Jones era went in New England could be a sign of bad things to come for Maye going into 2024.
JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
JJ McCarthy won a national championship the last time we saw him in a competitive football game, winning the title for the Michigan Wolverines. There are huge questions about how good a passer McCarthy can be at the professional level. But he has Justin Jefferson to throw to (for now) and could be in the best landing spot of the five quarterbacks who went in the top-10 of this year’s draft.
Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
The first skill position player taken in this year’s NFL Draft was Marvin Harrison Jr., who was selected by the Arizona Cardinals. Harrison had a prolific collegiate career at Ohio State and will be likely to make an impact right away in the pros. With Kyler Murray to throw to him, Maserati Marv should put up numbers that will at least keep him in consideration for this award as long as he remains healthy.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
The New York Giants also took a skill position player in the top-10 of the draft, grabbing LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers was the second-best receiver in this year’s class behind Harrison. But he also benefited from catching passes from last season’s Heisman Trophy winner. He is likely to have a tougher time making big plays with Daniel Jones throwing him the football, assuming Jones gets enough time to throw to do so in the first place.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze saw his draft stock skyrocket this past season as he and Michael Penix Jr. teamed up to help the Washington Huskies reach the national championship game. Odunze is now a Chicago Bear, as Chicago used their two top-10 draft picks to take Caleb Williams and Odunze, giving them a high-level quarterback prospect and a great target for him to throw to.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
Unlike the other players mentioned in this article, Xavier Worthy was not drafted inside of the top-10 of the first round. He was drafted near the end of the first round, but he should be a threat to win Offensive Rookie of the Year thanks to his favorable landing spot. He joins the Kansas City Chiefs, who were in need of a high-level receiver addition given all of the issues with previous options like Kadarius Toney. Worthy will be expected to make some big plays with Patrick Mahomes delivering him the ball this season.
2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction
Our early pick to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is Xavier Worthy of the Kansas City Chiefs. Worthy is not the best football player in this year’s rookie class. But his high level of talent combined with the situation he finds himself in will give him a huge advantage over the players who may be better but are going to worse teams.