Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds Preview & Tracker – 2021
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Historical betting archive: Original 2021 odds and analysis, updated with final award results.
The 2021 NFL Draft was unusually offense-heavy at the top. Seven offensive players were selected before the Carolina Panthers took cornerback Jaycee Horn with the eighth overall pick. Patrick Surtain II followed at No. 9, and the Dallas Cowboys selected linebacker Micah Parsons at No. 12.
With no defensive player selected in the first seven picks, the 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year race appeared unusually open.
Parsons entered the summer as the betting favorite at +400, followed by Miami Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips at +650. Kwity Paye, Jamin Davis, Patrick Surtain II, and Jaycee Horn were among the other prominent candidates.
The race ultimately produced a decisive winner. Micah Parsons won the 2021 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award unanimously, receiving all 50 first-place votes.
This updated archive preserves the original preseason odds and player evaluations, then compares those expectations with what happened during the 2021 NFL season.
For current football analysis, visit ATS.io's NFL picks and betting news.
Micah Parsons — Dallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons won the 2021 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year award unanimously, receiving all 50 first-place votes.
His rookie season statistics:
Statistic | Total |
|---|---|
Sacks | 13.0 |
Combined tackles | 84 |
Tackles for loss | 20 |
First-place votes | 50 of 50 |
Parsons was selected 12th overall out of Penn State and immediately became one of the NFL's most disruptive defenders.
His versatility was central to his success. Dallas used him both as an off-ball linebacker and an edge rusher, giving defensive coordinator Dan Quinn flexibility to attack opposing offenses.
Parsons finished the regular season with 13 sacks, 84 combined tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 30 quarterback hits, and three forced fumbles.
He also earned first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl recognition.
His performance was so strong that he received five votes for the AP Defensive Player of the Year award, finishing second to Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt.
The award was officially announced at NFL Honors on February 10, 2022.
The original ATS.io article examined preseason odds from BetMGM and other sportsbooks.
The table below preserves the main contenders and prices discussed in that article.
Player | 2021 team | Original odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
Micah Parsons | Dallas Cowboys | +400 | 20.0% |
Jaelan Phillips | Miami Dolphins | +650 | 13.3% |
Kwity Paye | Indianapolis Colts | +900 | 10.0% |
Jamin Davis | Washington Football Team | +900 | 10.0% |
Patrick Surtain II | Denver Broncos | +1200 | 7.7% |
Jaycee Horn | Carolina Panthers | +1600 | 5.9% |
Carlos Basham Jr. | Buffalo Bills | +10000 | 1.0% |
Chazz Surratt | Minnesota Vikings | +5000 | 2.0% |
These are the odds quoted in the original article, not current prices. The original multi-sportsbook tracker displayed some different prices at the same time, reflecting differences between bookmakers and updates.
The archived odds table included numerous other defensive rookies.
Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|
Azeez Ojulari | +2000 | +1700 | +2000 |
Baron Browning | +5000 | +4500 | +4000 |
Caleb Farley | +2500 | +1700 | +1800 |
Christian Barmore | +4000 | +4500 | +4000 |
Eric Stokes | +2500 | +3300 | +3000 |
Greg Newsome II | +2000 | +2600 | +2500 |
Gregory Rousseau | +1600 | +2000 | +2200 |
Jabril Cox | +5000 | +3300 | +5000 |
Jaelan Phillips | +700 | +900 | +850 |
Jamin Davis | +800 | +900 | +1100 |
The tracker is reproduced as a historical snapshot. Blank or missing prices in the original have not been filled with estimates. The original table also contained duplicate entries for Asante Samuel Jr., so those entries have been omitted here rather than presented as separate players.
The market viewed Parsons as the leading candidate, but the prices suggested a competitive race.
A +400 favorite carries an implied probability of 20% before accounting for the sportsbook's margin.
That is substantially different from a typical game moneyline favorite.
Futures markets distribute probability across many possible winners, and even the leading contender can have a relatively modest chance of taking the award.
Player | Original odds | 2021 outcome |
|---|---|---|
Micah Parsons | +400 | Won the award |
Jaelan Phillips | +650 | Strong rookie season, 8.5 sacks |
Kwity Paye | +900 | Four sacks in 15 games |
Jamin Davis | +900 | 76 combined tackles |
Patrick Surtain II | +1200 | Four interceptions, 14 passes defended |
Jaycee Horn | +1600 | Season shortened by foot injury |
Carlos Basham Jr. | +10000 | Limited defensive playing time |
Chazz Surratt | +5000 | Primarily a special-teams role |
The favorite delivered.
Parsons' combination of tackles, sacks, and consistent disruptive play gave him a substantial advantage over the other rookies.
Phillips and Surtain produced impressive seasons, but neither matched Parsons' overall impact.
The long shots discussed in the original article never became serious award contenders.
That distinction is important when assessing the original preview: Parsons was a winning futures bet at the quoted +400 odds, but the article discussed several candidates rather than issuing one clearly labeled official selection.
Parsons was one of the most intriguing players in the 2021 draft.
He had recorded 191 tackles during his first two seasons at Penn State, including 14 tackles for loss and five sacks in 2019.
He opted out of the 2020 college football season before entering the NFL Draft.
Dallas selected him 12th overall, immediately giving him an opportunity to contribute to a defense that needed improvement.
The original preview emphasized Parsons' ability to make tackles and stop the run.
It also identified the central question surrounding his award chances: could he produce enough sacks or other high-impact plays to stand out?
Linebackers had won the award before, including Von Miller, Luke Kuechly, and Darius Leonard.
However, tackles alone weren't necessarily enough to separate a player from the field.
Parsons needed to demonstrate that he could affect games beyond traditional linebacker responsibilities.
Parsons exceeded those expectations.
Dallas initially used him primarily at linebacker, but injuries along the defensive line led to an expanded pass-rushing role.
That adjustment transformed his rookie season.
He regularly defeated offensive linemen, pressured quarterbacks, and disrupted plays in the backfield.
His 13 sacks were the most by any NFL rookie in 2021.
He also led all rookies with 20 tackles for loss and 30 quarterback hits.
Parsons became one of the most versatile defensive players in the league, contributing against the run, in coverage, and as a pass rusher.
A hypothetical $100 futures bet at +400 would have returned:
Item | Amount |
|---|---|
Original stake | $100 |
Profit | $400 |
Total payout | $500 |
The wager would have generated a 400% profit relative to the original stake.
Of course, that result doesn't mean every +400 futures favorite represents good value.
The market gave Parsons a 20% implied chance at that price. His actual performance was exceptional, but bettors needed to make their decisions before the season began.
Retrospective assessment: The original article correctly identified Parsons as the favorite and recognized his potential to become a high-impact defender. His unexpected success as an edge rusher ultimately made the award race far less competitive than preseason odds suggested.
Jaelan Phillips was the first edge rusher selected in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Miami took him 18th overall after an impressive final college season with the Hurricanes.
Phillips recorded 15.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks in ten games during 2020.
His production made him one of the most appealing candidates in the Defensive Rookie of the Year market.
The original ATS.io preview viewed Phillips as a potential alternative to Parsons.
Miami had recorded 41 sacks during the previous season and frequently used blitz packages.
However, the Dolphins' overall pressure rate suggested there was room for improvement.
Phillips offered the possibility of producing sacks immediately in a defense that needed additional pass-rushing talent.
His +650 price also offered a larger payout than Parsons' +400.
Phillips had an impressive rookie season.
He recorded 8.5 sacks, establishing a Dolphins rookie franchise record at the time.
He became particularly productive during Miami's seven-game winning streak, generating consistent pressure and making important plays.
His performance justified much of the preseason optimism.
However, Parsons' 13 sacks and broader defensive contributions were simply too strong.
Phillips finished with a productive rookie campaign but did not receive an AP Defensive Rookie of the Year vote.
Jaelan Phillips +650: Lost.
Phillips was a reasonable candidate entering the season and delivered meaningful pass-rushing production.
The problem was that Parsons produced a historically strong rookie campaign.
Retrospective assessment: The original reasoning behind Phillips was sound. Sacks are highly visible in award voting, and Miami provided opportunities for him to produce. His rookie performance was good, but the competition was extraordinary.
The Indianapolis Colts selected Kwity Paye with the 21st overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Paye entered the league after playing at Michigan, where his athleticism and pass-rushing potential attracted attention.
The original preview questioned whether his +900 odds offered sufficient value.
Indianapolis had an established defensive structure and several talented players.
That gave Paye a chance to contribute immediately.
However, the original article argued that Paye would need an exceptional season to attract award consideration.
His college sack totals were relatively modest compared with some other edge-rushing prospects.
There was also uncertainty about how quickly he would translate his athletic ability into NFL production.
Paye played 15 games and recorded four sacks during his rookie season.
He showed promise as a developing pass rusher, but his production wasn't close to the level needed to challenge Parsons.
The Colts finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs.
Kwity Paye +900: Lost.
Retrospective assessment: The original skepticism was justified. Paye contributed as a rookie, but his statistical production wasn't sufficient for a major individual award.
Washington selected Jamin Davis 19th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Davis had impressed at Kentucky, particularly with his speed, range, and tackling ability.
His athletic profile suggested he could develop into a productive NFL linebacker.
However, his college role had not consistently featured the type of pass-rushing production associated with several previous award winners.
The original article questioned both the price and the potential statistical ceiling.
At +900, Davis needed to become one of the NFL's most productive rookies to justify his place among the favorites.
The concern was that he might record a respectable tackle total without producing enough sacks, interceptions, or other headline plays.
Davis recorded 76 combined tackles in his rookie season.
He contributed to Washington's defense but struggled with consistency and adapting to NFL responsibilities.
He did not emerge as a serious Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Jamin Davis +900: Lost.
Retrospective assessment: The original concerns about Davis' award potential proved accurate. His rookie production was insufficient to compete with the leading candidates.
Patrick Surtain II entered the NFL with an outstanding college reputation.
Denver selected him ninth overall after a successful career at Alabama.
He also had the advantage of learning from his father, Patrick Surtain, who enjoyed a long NFL career as a cornerback.
The original ATS.io preview identified Surtain as a potentially attractive option at +1200.
Defensive backs historically faced a difficult path to the award.
However, Marcus Peters had won in 2015, followed by Marshon Lattimore in 2017.
Surtain was expected to face high-profile passing offenses in the AFC West, giving him opportunities to demonstrate his coverage ability.
Strong performances against established quarterbacks could attract attention from award voters.
Surtain enjoyed an excellent rookie season.
He recorded four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, and defended 14 passes.
His performance established him as one of the league's most promising young cornerbacks.
However, Parsons' dominance meant that Surtain had little opportunity to win the award.
Patrick Surtain II +1200: Lost.
Retrospective assessment: Surtain was one of the strongest candidates outside Parsons. The original article's interest in him was reasonable, particularly given his draft position and immediate starting opportunity. His individual performance was impressive, but the award race was unusually one-sided.
The Carolina Panthers selected Jaycee Horn eighth overall, making him the first defensive player chosen in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Horn had developed a strong reputation at South Carolina and was expected to play a significant role in Carolina's secondary.
His father, Joe Horn, had previously enjoyed a successful NFL career as a wide receiver.
The original article highlighted Horn's opportunity to face high-profile NFC South offenses.
Carolina's divisional schedule included matchups against Tom Brady and other established passing attacks.
A strong rookie season against that competition could have generated considerable attention.
At +1600, Horn also offered a larger potential payout than the leading candidates.
Horn began his rookie season promisingly.
However, he suffered a broken foot in Week 3 against Houston.
The injury effectively ended his season after just three games.
He finished with one interception and five combined tackles.
Jaycee Horn +1600: Lost.
Retrospective assessment: Horn's injury makes his original preseason potential difficult to evaluate fairly. He had the talent and draft status to compete, but his season ended before he could build an award-winning statistical record.
The original ATS.io article identified two longer-priced players worth considering: Carlos Basham Jr. and Chazz Surratt.
Neither was selected in the first round, making their paths to the award considerably more difficult.
Buffalo selected Basham in the second round after a productive college career at Wake Forest.
He finished his college career with 19.5 sacks and had demonstrated the ability to disrupt opposing offenses.
The original preview argued that Buffalo's need for additional pass-rushing production could give him an opportunity.
At +10000, the potential return was substantial.
A $100 winning wager would have generated $10,000 in profit.
However, Basham played a limited defensive role during his rookie season.
He recorded 2.5 sacks and never became a serious award contender.
Betting result: Lost.
Minnesota selected Surratt in the third round after his unusual college transition from quarterback to linebacker.
Surratt had produced strong tackle totals at North Carolina and demonstrated the athletic ability to contribute in multiple situations.
The original article considered his tackling production a potential route to award consideration.
However, Surratt played primarily on special teams as a rookie.
He did not secure a significant defensive role and was never a realistic award contender.
Betting result: Lost.
Both players had interesting college profiles.
However, their limited rookie roles illustrated the difficulty of backing second- and third-round selections in this market.
An award winner typically needs substantial playing time, statistical production, and consistent national attention.
Without a clear route to a major defensive role, even a talented prospect can struggle to justify a long futures price.
Several players outside the original article's main selections delivered productive rookie seasons.
Ojulari recorded eight sacks during his rookie campaign.
His production made him one of the league's most effective first-year pass rushers.
He had been listed around +2000 in the original odds tracker.
Rousseau contributed four sacks and provided Buffalo with another young defensive lineman capable of creating pressure.
He entered the season with considerable upside after being selected in the first round.
Bolton developed into a productive linebacker immediately.
He recorded 112 combined tackles and became an important part of Kansas City's defense.
Although his rookie performance was impressive, his contributions didn't generate the same award attention as Parsons' combination of tackles and sacks.
Owusu-Koramoah brought speed and versatility to Cleveland's linebacker group.
He recorded 76 combined tackles and demonstrated the ability to contribute in coverage and against the run.
His rookie season reinforced his potential as an NFL defender.
Samuel became an immediate contributor in the Chargers' secondary.
He recorded two interceptions and defended 11 passes.
His performance placed him among the more productive rookie cornerbacks, although Surtain received greater recognition.
The original preview correctly identified the traits that typically matter in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Impact plays, immediate contributions, and statistical production are important.
Parsons delivered in every category.
His 13 sacks ranked among the best rookie totals in NFL history.
He also generated 30 quarterback hits and 20 tackles for loss.
Those numbers made him stand out even when compared with established NFL defenders.
Parsons was effective as a traditional linebacker and as an edge rusher.
He could defend the run, pursue ball carriers, and pressure quarterbacks.
That versatility increased his impact on games.
Parsons became a central figure in the Cowboys' defense during his first season.
Dallas finished 12-5 and won the NFC East.
His production was a major part of the team's defensive improvement.
Parsons earned first-team All-Pro recognition and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
That distinction separated him from other rookies.
He wasn't simply the best first-year defender.
He was already among the most impactful defensive players in the entire league.
Defensive Rookie of the Year is a futures market.
Bettors select the player they expect to win the AP award, usually before or during the NFL regular season.
The wager settles after the winner is officially announced.
Positive American odds indicate the profit on a hypothetical $100 winning wager.
For example:
Odds | Profit on $100 | Total payout |
|---|---|---|
+400 | $400 | $500 |
+650 | $650 | $750 |
+900 | $900 | $1,000 |
+1200 | $1,200 | $1,300 |
+5000 | $5,000 | $5,100 |
Higher potential payouts generally correspond to lower implied probabilities.
A longer price isn't automatically better value.
The key is comparing the implied probability with a realistic assessment of the player's chances.
Futures odds respond to several factors:
Parsons' 2021 season illustrates how quickly a futures market can change when one player emerges as the clear leader.
The 2021 market offers several lessons for evaluating future Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates.
Parsons, Surtain, Phillips, Paye, Davis, and Horn were all first-round selections.
Their draft positions reflected the expectation that they could contribute immediately.
However, draft status alone didn't determine the winner.
Parsons' actual role and performance made the difference.
Parsons and Phillips both generated substantial pass-rushing production.
Sacks are visible, measurable plays that frequently influence award discussions.
However, Parsons also contributed significantly against the run and in other defensive situations.
His broader impact made his case stronger.
Basham and Surratt entered the season with interesting potential.
Neither received enough defensive playing time to produce an award-winning season.
Bettors evaluating rookies should consider their likely snap counts and competition for starting positions.
Horn was a promising prospect, but his injury ended his award chances.
Futures wagers carry the risk that a player will miss substantial time.
That risk is particularly important when placing bets months before the award is decided.
Surtain and Phillips delivered impressive performances.
Neither received an AP Defensive Rookie of the Year vote because Parsons was the unanimous winner.
Futures betting requires evaluating the entire field, not simply predicting which players will perform well.
For current NFL futures and matchup analysis, see ATS.io's NFL coverage and the NFL matchup center.
The original article highlighted the strong track record of previous award winners, particularly players from Ohio State.
Here is a look at the winners leading into the 2021 season.
Season | Winner | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Micah Parsons | Dallas Cowboys | LB |
2020 | Chase Young | Washington Football Team | DE |
2019 | Nick Bosa | San Francisco 49ers | DE |
2018 | Darius Leonard | Indianapolis Colts | LB |
2017 | Marshon Lattimore | New Orleans Saints | CB |
2016 | Joey Bosa | San Diego Chargers | DE |
2015 | Marcus Peters | Kansas City Chiefs | CB |
2014 | Aaron Donald | St. Louis Rams | DT |
2013 | Sheldon Richardson | New York Jets | DT |
2012 | Luke Kuechly | Carolina Panthers | LB |
2011 | Von Miller | Denver Broncos | LB |
The list shows how frequently the award has gone to players who made an immediate impact.
It also demonstrates that several different defensive positions can produce winners.
Edge rushers, linebackers, defensive tackles, and cornerbacks have all earned the honor.
The original article emphasized that previous winners tended to become productive NFL players.
That historical pattern helped frame the 2021 discussion, although future career success cannot be known when placing a preseason wager.
Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys won the award.
Yes. The original ATS.io article listed Parsons as the favorite at +400.
The original preview quoted +400, although sportsbook prices varied.
Parsons received all 50 first-place votes, winning unanimously.
He recorded 13 sacks in 16 regular-season games.
He finished with 84 combined tackles.
Jaelan Phillips, Kwity Paye, Jamin Davis, Patrick Surtain II, and Jaycee Horn were among the prominent preseason candidates.
Phillips recorded 8.5 sacks for the Miami Dolphins.
Surtain recorded four interceptions and 14 passes defended during his rookie season.
Horn suffered a foot injury in Week 3 that effectively ended his rookie season.
No. T.J. Watt won the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year award. Parsons finished second in the voting.
It would have generated $400 in profit, for a total payout of $500.
The award was announced at NFL Honors on February 10, 2022.
No. They are historical 2021 futures odds preserved for reference.
The 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year race initially appeared open.
The draft's offense-heavy opening left several defensive prospects competing for attention, and the preseason odds reflected that uncertainty.
Parsons was the favorite at +400, but Phillips, Paye, Davis, Surtain, and Horn all entered the season with realistic opportunities to make an impact.
Once the games began, Parsons separated himself.
His 13 sacks, 84 tackles, and 20 tackles for loss gave him a statistical advantage that no other rookie could match.
He became the unanimous award winner and one of the league's most impressive defensive players.
→ Our Take: Parsons was the right favorite, and his +400 preseason odds proved rewarding for bettors who backed him. The original preview correctly questioned whether he could produce the sacks needed to stand out. He answered that question emphatically, becoming an elite pass rusher while maintaining his value as a linebacker. Phillips and Surtain were legitimate alternatives, but Parsons' versatility and production made this one of the clearest individual award decisions of the 2021 NFL season.
Updated October 26, 2026
