Derrick Henry projections, stats and prop bet odds for Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs on Sep 5, 2024
Derrick Henry Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 15.5 over: -129
- Carries 15.5 under: 100
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 44.9% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to accrue 15.9 carries in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's safety corps has been awful last year, ranking as the 10th-worst in the league. in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this game (54.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (66.8% in games he has played).
Projection For Today's Derrick Henry Carries Prop Bet
Derrick Henry is projected to have 15 Carries in todays game.
Derrick Henry Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 1.5 over: 120
- Receptions 1.5 under: -155
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 5th-best in football last year.
With a fantastic 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (98th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs.
Last year, the poor Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a whopping 89.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The model projects the Ravens as the 7th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) last year.
Projection For Today's Derrick Henry Receptions Prop Bet
Derrick Henry is projected to have 1.8 Receptions in todays game.
Derrick Henry Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 65.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 65.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 44.9% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to accrue 15.9 carries in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has generated 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground last year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (94th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games last year, conceding 4.60 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this game (54.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (66.8% in games he has played).
Projection For Today's Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Derrick Henry is projected to have 63.5 Rushing Yards in todays game.
Derrick Henry Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 6.5 over: -125
- Receiving Yards 6.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 5th-best in football last year.
With a fantastic 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (98th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs.
With an excellent 6.4 adjusted yards per target (79th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry stands among the best RB receiving threats in the NFL.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The model projects the Ravens as the 7th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) last year.
Derrick Henry has accumulated a feeble -4.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 7th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) versus RBs last year.
Projection For Today's Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Derrick Henry is projected to have 14.1 Receiving Yards in todays game.
