Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
• Run Line: Twins -1.5 105, White Sox 1.5 -125
• Money Line: Twins -165, White Sox 145
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 60%
• Chicago White Sox - 40%

Projected Win %:

• Minnesota Twins - 59.16%
• Chicago White Sox - 40.84%

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will play host to the Minnesota Twins at Guaranteed Rate Field. This American League Central matchup features the struggling White Sox, who hold a record of 6-22 this season, against the Twins, who are having an above-average season with a record of 14-13.

The White Sox are projected to start left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet, who has had a rough season so far. Crochet has started six games and holds a win-loss record of 1-4 with an ERA of 6.37. However, his 2.94 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

The Twins, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Joe Ryan to the mound. Ryan has started five games and has a win-loss record of 1-1 with an impressive ERA of 3.45. His 2.64 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well, and he is expected to continue performing well.

Ryan, a low-walk pitcher, will face a White Sox offense that ranks second in the league for the fewest walks. The White Sox's aggressive approach at the plate might not be advantageous against Ryan's control.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking last in MLB. Their batting average, home runs, and stolen bases all rank in the bottom half of the league. In contrast, the Twins offense ranks higher, especially in home runs where they are seventh in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams are ranked towards the bottom of the league. The White Sox rank 28th, while the Twins rank 24th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Over the last week, the White Sox's best hitter has been Andrew Benintendi, who has recorded 8 hits, 10 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a .364 batting average and a 1.045 OPS. The Twins' standout performer over the last week has been Edouard Julien, who has 9 hits, 7 runs, 7 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a .409 batting average and a 1.455 OPS.

The Twins enter this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -165, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. In contrast, the White Sox are the underdogs with a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.

Overall, the Twins appear to have the advantage in this matchup. However, with unpredictable nature of baseball, anything can happen on the field. Be sure to tune in to see how this contest unfolds.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Minnesota Twins have 9 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Garrett Crochet in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)

Twins vs White Sox Prediction: Twins 4.59 - White Sox 3.55

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.