Chicago Cubs at New York Mets Best Bet – 4/29/2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs

Apr 29, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 29, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
    • Luis Severino - Mets
  • Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -195, Mets -1.5 165
  • Money Line: Cubs 110, Mets -130
  • Total (Over/Under): 8

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Chicago Cubs - 46%
  • New York Mets - 54%

Projected Win %:

  • Chicago Cubs - 43.8%
  • New York Mets - 56.2%

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the New York Mets will face off against the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field. As the home team, the Mets will look to capitalize on their above-average season with a record of 14-13. Meanwhile, the Cubs are having a great season with a record of 17-11. This National League matchup promises an exciting game.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Severino, who has been performing well this season. With a win/loss record of 2-2 and an excellent ERA of 2.67, Severino has been a key contributor to the Mets' success. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests that he may experience some regression in his performance going forward.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound. Taillon, also a right-handed pitcher, has started two games this season and has an impressive ERA of 1.69. However, his 4.14 xFIP indicates that he may not be able to sustain this level of performance.

In terms of offensive power, the Mets rank 11th best in MLB, while the Cubs rank 6th. The Mets have an average team batting average of .240, but they excel in home runs, ranking 11th in the league. The Cubs have a strong batting average, ranking 9th in MLB, and also perform well in stolen bases, ranking 6th.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Mets rank 17th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cubs rank 20th. Both teams have average bullpens, which could make for an interesting late-game matchup.

According to the current odds, the Mets are favored to win with a moneyline set at -135, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. The Cubs, with a moneyline of +115, have an implied win probability of 45%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average-scoring game.

Overall, this matchup between the Mets and Cubs promises to be a close game. The Mets will rely on their above-average season and the performance of Luis Severino, while the Cubs will look to continue their great season with Jameson Taillon on the mound. With both teams boasting solid offenses, it will be interesting to see how the pitchers fare against their opponents.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's curveball percentage has spiked by 7% from last year to this one (15.2% to 22.2%) .

  • Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all SPs, Luis Severino's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph is in the 89th percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Omar Narvaez may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brett Baty has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has only hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Prediction: Cubs 4.11 - Mets 4.42

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+122
20% CHC
-147
80% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/+102
9% UN
7.0/-122
91% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-175
57% CHC
-1.5/+145
43% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHC
Team Stats
NYM
4.22
ERA
4.55
.243
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.29
WHIP
1.38
.289
BABIP
.297
8.3%
BB%
9.9%
22.0%
K%
22.5%
71.1%
LOB%
72.3%
.255
Batting Avg
.236
.419
SLG
.399
.751
OPS
.715
.332
OBP
.317
CHC
Team Records
NYM
18-13
Home
14-23
15-22
Road
15-14
29-25
vRHP
20-26
4-10
vLHP
9-11
12-16
vs>.500
9-18
21-19
vs<.500
20-19
5-5
Last10
6-4
7-13
Last20
8-12
11-19
Last30
11-19
J. Taillon
L. Severino
104.0
Innings
N/A
21
GS
N/A
7-7
W-L
N/A
5.71
ERA
N/A
7.88
K/9
N/A
2.77
BB/9
N/A
1.47
HR/9
N/A
62.3%
LOB%
N/A
12.1%
HR/FB%
N/A
4.68
FIP
N/A
4.76
xFIP
N/A
.272
AVG
N/A
20.2%
K%
N/A
7.1%
BB%
N/A
4.61
SIERA
N/A

J. Taillon

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 TOR
Manoah N/A
W9-1 N/A
6
5
1
1
4
0
49-71
4/28 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
W10-5 N/A
4.2
7
2
2
4
1
55-83
4/16 BAL
Wells N/A
W5-2 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
2
1
43-69
4/11 TOR
Manoah N/A
L0-3 N/A
5
5
2
2
6
0
53-72
10/3 TB
Wacha N/A
W1-0 N/A
3.1
2
0
0
2
1
27-45

L. Severino

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 KC
Lynch N/A
W6-4 N/A
5
7
4
3
4
1
57-93
4/26 BAL
Lyles N/A
W12-8 N/A
6
3
4
4
5
2
50-77
4/20 DET
Rodriguez N/A
W5-3 N/A
5
7
1
1
3
2
60-88
4/14 TOR
Gausman N/A
W3-0 N/A
5
2
0
0
6
2
56-83
4/9 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W4-2 N/A
3
5
2
2
5
0
41-65

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHC NYM
CHC NYM
Consensus
+105
-125
+122
-147
+110
-130
+124
-148
+110
-130
+120
-142
+108
-125
+125
-148
+110
-130
+122
-145
+105
-125
+120
-145
+105
-125
+120
-145
Open
Current
Book
CHC NYM
CHC NYM
Consensus
+1.5 (-181)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-181)
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-103)
7.0 (-123)
7.0 (+102)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-104)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+104)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)