Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 115, Angels 1.5 -135
• Money Line: Phillies -140, Angels 120
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 56%
• Los Angeles Angels - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 55.98%
• Los Angeles Angels - 44.02%

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels Game Preview & Prediction

The Los Angeles Angels are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in an Interleague matchup on April 29, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a disappointing record of 10-18, are having a tough season, while the Phillies are thriving with a record of 19-10, making it a great season for them.

The Angels, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in their own stadium. The game marks the first in a series between these two teams. The Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning, who, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, is ranked as the #88 best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other hand, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who is ranked as the #58 best starting pitcher.

Canning has had a challenging season so far, with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 7.50, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.72 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Sanchez, on the other hand, has been performing well with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 2.96. His 2.18 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well, and is also expected to improve in future games.

In terms of offense, the Angels rank as the #18 best team in MLB, with an average batting average ranking of #12 and a great ranking of #3 in home runs. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking #27. The Phillies, on the other hand, rank as the #8 best team in MLB, with a good batting average ranking of #8 and an average ranking of #16 in home runs. They perform well in stolen bases, ranking #10.

While the Angels have a weak bullpen, ranked as the second-worst in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Phillies boast the fourth-best bullpen. This could give the Phillies an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%, while the Angels are the underdogs with a 44% win probability. The Phillies have a higher implied team total of 4.81 runs compared to the Angels' 4.19 runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez's 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.9-mph spike from last year's 91.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Brandon Marsh has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will be challenged by baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Mike Trout are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Los Angeles Angels with a 25.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.89 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Mike Trout has only hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 19 games (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Phillies vs Angels Prediction: Phillies 5.51 - Angels 4.59

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.