Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Bowlan - Royals
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -165, Blue Jays -1.5 145
• Money Line: Royals 125, Blue Jays -145
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 43%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 42.46%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 57.54%

Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Kansas City Royals at Rogers Centre. As the home team, the Blue Jays will look to improve their record of 14-15 this season, which has been below average so far. Meanwhile, the Royals have been having a great season with a record of 17-12.

Yariel Rodriguez is projected to start on the mound for the Blue Jays. The right-handed pitcher has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA stands at 3.86, which is considered good. However, his 5.01 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward. Rodriguez is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs.

Jonathan Bowlan is set to start for the Royals. Unfortunately, Bowlan has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. His strikeout projection is also low, with an average of 3.4 strikeouts per game.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home run ranking. On the other hand, the Royals offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average team batting average and a strong ranking in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, implying a win probability of 57%. The Royals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125, implying a win probability of 43%.

With the Blue Jays having a higher projected win probability, they will aim to capitalize on their home advantage and improve their season record. The Royals, however, will look to continue their strong season and pull off an upset on the road.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Jonathan Bowlan will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 20th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Vinnie Pasquantino hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense projects as the 11th-weakest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Hitting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Justin Turner will have an advantage in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 21% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 132 games (+9.04 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.55 Units / 78% ROI)

Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction: Royals 4.44 - Blue Jays 4.94

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