Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on May 16, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with an impressive record of 29-16 this season, are having a great year, while the Reds have struggled with a 18-25 record, making it a tough season for them.

The Dodgers are projected to start the right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who is ranked as the #4 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Glasnow has been dominant this season, with a 6-1 win/loss record and an outstanding ERA of 2.53. He is known for his high strikeout rate and is expected to pose a challenge to the Reds' offense, which ranks #25 in MLB.

On the other side, the Reds will send left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo to the mound. Lodolo, ranked as the #29 best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 3-2 win/loss record and a solid ERA of 3.34. He is renowned for his control and low walk rate, which could pose a challenge to the patient Dodgers' offense that leads MLB in walks.

The Dodgers boast the #1 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their overall talent and ability to score runs. They rank #12 in team batting average and #2 in home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is #20, indicating an area for improvement. Meanwhile, the Reds' offense ranks #25 overall, with an average batting average and home run ranking, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking #1 in MLB.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Dodgers have the #9 best bullpen in MLB, while the Reds rank #23. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, as the Dodgers' bullpen has a slight advantage.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Dodgers as a massive favorite with a win probability of 73%, while the Reds are considered a massive underdog with a win probability of 27%. Based on the current odds, the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 5.01 runs, while the Reds have a lower implied team total of 2.99 runs.

Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, this game appears to heavily favor the Dodgers. With their dominant pitching, powerful offense, and strong bullpen, they have a significant advantage over the struggling Reds. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Reds will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Los Angeles's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds (25.6% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy group of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has used his off-speed and breaking balls 14.3% less often this year (42.2%) than he did last season (56.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Since the start of last season, Shohei Ohtani's 19.1% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 100th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+7.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.51 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.67

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