New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Minnesota Twins will host the New York Yankees at Target Field on May 16, 2024. The Twins, with a season record of 24-18, are having a good season so far, while the Yankees boast an impressive 29-15 record, indicating a great season for them.

Both teams will send their right-handed pitchers to the mound, with Joe Ryan starting for the Twins and Clarke Schmidt taking the hill for the Yankees. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Joe Ryan is considered the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Clarke Schmidt ranks 61st. This suggests that Ryan is a great pitcher, while Schmidt is above average.

Joe Ryan has started eight games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2. He has an ERA of 3.21, which is considered great. Additionally, his xERA (Expected ERA) of 2.53 suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

Clarke Schmidt, on the other hand, has started eight games with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.95. However, his 3.60 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well in the future.

The Twins offense ranks 11th best in MLB this season, while the Yankees offense ranks 3rd. However, the Twins rank 22nd in team batting average, while the Yankees rank 29th. Both teams have a good ranking in team home runs, with the Twins at 7th and the Yankees at 8th. In terms of stolen bases, the Twins rank 24th, while the Yankees rank 20th.

Looking at the projections for today's game, Joe Ryan is expected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 6.7 batters. However, he is projected to allow 4.6 hits and 1.6 walks, which are considered terrible.

Clarke Schmidt, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.6 batters. However, he is projected to allow 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks, which are also considered terrible.

Based on the current odds, the Twins have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, while the Yankees have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs. THE BAT X projects the Twins to score an average of 4.51 runs in this game, while the Yankees are projected to score 4.63 runs.

Overall, THE BAT X projects a 52% win probability for the Twins and a 48% win probability for the Yankees, indicating that this is expected to be a close game. The Twins have the advantage of playing at home, but the Yankees have been performing exceptionally well this season. It will be an exciting matchup between two strong teams in the American League.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt has relied on his cutter 5.4% more often this year (33.6%) than he did last season (28.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Minnesota's 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's 93-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.4-mph jump from last year's 91.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Alex Kirilloff is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 76% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.54 vs Minnesota Twins 4.35

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.