Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

In a National League Central matchup, the Chicago Cubs will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on May 16, 2024. The Cubs, with a season record of 25-19, are having a good season, while the Pirates, with a record of 19-25, are struggling.

The Cubs will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Justin Steele. Steele, ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started three games this year. His ERA stands at 4.73, but his 4.09 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones. Jones, ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB, has started eight games this year. He has an impressive ERA of 2.68, although his 3.48 FIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Cubs have a solid offense, ranking 13th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and stolen bases, ranking 6th. Their best hitter this season has been Christopher Morel, who has recorded 22 runs, 28 RBIs, 9 home runs, and 4 stolen bases.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. They have a low team batting average, ranking 26th, and have struggled with home runs, ranking 23rd. Bryan Reynolds has been their best hitter this season, contributing to the team with his performances.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are the favorites for this game with a projected win probability of 59%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a projected win probability of 41%.

With the Cubs having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, there may be value in betting on the Cubs for this game. It is expected to be a close matchup, and both teams will be looking to secure the victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jared Jones has averaged 17.6 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The Chicago Cubs don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Justin Steele has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.4% less often this season (30.2%) than he did last season (35.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Cody Bellinger has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 18.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.80 Units / 76% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.1 vs Chicago Cubs 4.66

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