Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Cristian Javier - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will face off against the Oakland Athletics in an American League West matchup at Minute Maid Park on May 16, 2024. The Astros, currently holding a record of 18-25, are having a difficult season, while the Athletics are also struggling with a record of 19-26.

The Astros will be the home team for this game, with the Houston crowd behind them. They are projected to start Cristian Javier, a right-handed pitcher. Javier has started five games this year and holds a win/loss record of 2-1. His ERA stands at 4.01, which is above average. However, his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 5.91 suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other side, the Athletics are projected to start Joey Estes, also a right-handed pitcher. Estes has started one game this year and holds a perfect 1-0 record with an impressive ERA of 1.80. However, his xFIP of 3.12 indicates that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in performance in the future.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Javier is ranked #163 out of approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB, representing below-average performance. Estes, on the other hand, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

The Astros offense has been performing well this season, ranking as the #6 best in MLB. They have shown strength in team batting average and home runs, ranking #14 and #9 respectively. The Athletics offense, however, has struggled, ranking #30 in team batting average, but excelling in stolen bases with a #5 rank.

The Astros enter the game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -205, implying a win probability of 65%. The Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +180 and an implied win probability of 35%.

With the Astros having the home field advantage, a stronger offense, and a better bullpen, they seem to have the upper hand in this matchup. However, Estes' strong performance and the Athletics' ability to steal bases may pose challenges for the Astros. It will be an exciting game to watch and could go either way.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

With 6 bats of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Joey Estes ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Seth Brown stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Seth Brown, Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all SPs, Cristian Javier's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph grades out in the 23rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Oakland's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 10th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.08 vs Houston Astros 5.57

Get daily MLB picks here.