New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 16, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on May 16, 2024. The Phillies, who currently hold a record of 31-13 this season, are having a great year and are considered one of the top teams in MLB. On the other hand, the Mets have struggled with a record of 19-23, making this a below-average season for them.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, who has been performing well this season with a 3-0 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.82. However, his 5.92 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances. On the other hand, the Mets are expected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has a 1-4 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.44. Despite his high ERA, his 4.60 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Phillies have been impressive, ranking as the second-best offense in MLB this season. They have shown strength in team batting average, ranking eighth, and stolen bases, ranking tenth. The Mets, however, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 21st best offense in MLB. They have particularly struggled with team batting average, ranking 24th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Phillies have a strong bullpen, ranking third in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Mets, on the other hand, have an average bullpen, ranking 19th.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X projects the Phillies as the favorite as well, with a projected win probability of 56%. The Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.31 runs, while the Mets have a lower implied team total of 3.69 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Jose Quintana should be in good shape squaring off against 6 hitters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.D. Martinez's 17.1% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Edmundo Sosa pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.47 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.86

Get daily MLB picks here.